Between Washington and Beijing: can Central Asia preserve its multi-vector technology policy?

Independent research on WAICO highlights precisely this dual nature. On the one hand, the organization may strengthen China's international influence. On the other, it responds to a genuine demand from developing countries for training, infrastructure, access to open-weight models and a greater role in shaping international AI rules.

At the same time, the AI race is entering a new phase. China is no longer simply catching up with the United States. It is competing with the US in performance, cost and scale of deployment. According to Stanford HAI, in March 2026 the gap between the leading American and Chinese AI models was only 2.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, models from the two countries have repeatedly exchanged the lead.

China is strengthening its position through DeepSeek, Kimi K3, Qwen, GLM and MiniMax- open-weight models, rapid development and significantly lower operating costs. Price may become one of the most important factors in the next stage of the AI race. The US still has major advantages: advanced chips and computing infrastructure, capital and leading AI research laboratories. In 2025, US developers produced 59 notable AI models, compared with 35 in China.

But China's strategy is different: Open models + low cost + industrial scale + government support + rapid deployment. The key question is therefore no longer simply who has the most powerful AI. It is increasingly about who can make advanced AI cheap, accessible and widely available.

That could determine not only technological leadership, but also geopolitical influence in the global AI race. For Central Asia, this distinction is particularly important. Central Asia: Diversification, Not Choosing Sides. The foreign policy model of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries has traditionally been based on diversification rather than exclusive alignment with a single external partner.

Their goal is not so much to balance ideologically between the United States and China as to avoid excessive dependence on any one external power while attracting investment, technology, infrastructure and access to different markets.

This approach is particularly rational in the technology sector. Central Asian countries do not have sufficient resources to build a complete modern AI ecosystem entirely on their own.

Building competitive AI infrastructure requires not only skilled professionals, but also substantial financial investment, access to advanced technologies and integration into global technology chains. For most Central Asian countries, building such an ecosystem independently would be extremely expensive and technologically difficult.

The region therefore depends on foreign capital, advanced GPUs and computing capacity, cloud platforms, telecommunications equipment and investment in data centers. International research partnerships, training for engineers and tech- specialists, and access to global markets and tech-platformsare equally important.

In other words, the key question for Central Asia is not whether the region can build its own AI ecosystem completely from scratch. The real question is whether it can integrate effectively into the global AI infrastructure while attracting the technology, capital and expertise it needs. That is why international technology and investment cooperation is not simply an additional advantage. It is a necessary condition for building a competitive AI economy in Central Asia.

The economic cost of cutting cooperation with one of the world's two largest technology centers could therefore be very high. At the same time, Central Asia possesses resources that both sides need. The region has strategic importance because of its energy resources, critical minerals, geographic position, growing digital infrastructure and emerging markets.

This gives Central Asian countries some room for maneuver. They should not be seen simply as passive recipients of American or Chinese technologies. Competition among external partners can be used to negotiate better investment terms, local production and technology transfer.