Russia, China, and the changing Eurasian balance - and what does it mean for Ukraine?

And Ukraine?

Ukraine's immediate reality remains difficult. Russian pressure continues, civilian casualties are high, and no durable peace has emerged. Russia's weakening could improve Ukraine's position, but weakness is not imminent collapse: Russia retains military resources, nuclear weapons, energy and diplomatic relationships. Ukraine cannot base its future on Russian disintegration.

At the same time, Ukrainian resistance has prevented Russia from achieving its original political objective. Moscow has not eliminated Ukraine as an independent state or persuaded the United Nations that conquest is legitimate. Continued recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty is strategically important.

The links form a chain: the longer the war continues, the more dependent Russia may become on China; the weaker Russia becomes, the greater China's relative power in northern Eurasia; but the more Ukraine survives as an independent European state, the less successful Russia's attempt to rebuild its sphere of domination will be. This may be one of the war's great unintended consequences.

The central geopolitical question is whether the world moves towards a system in which great powers determine smaller states' futures, or one in which sovereignty, territorial integrity and international law retain genuine force. Ukraine stands at that crossroads. Beyond it lies a larger Eurasian chessboard: Russia defending its great-power status, China increasing its weight, the United States managing simultaneous crises and Europe reconsidering its strategic responsibilities. The outcome is uncertain, but the Ukraine war will reshape the balance of power across Eurasia.