Ukraine at the crossroads of global power and the changing international order

The war between Ukraine and Russia has evolved into much more than a territorial conflict between two neighbouring states. It has become a central point of confrontation within a changing international order, bringing together the strategic interests of the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, NATO and a range of other international actors. The outcome will affect not only Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also the credibility of international security arrangements, the future of European defence, and the relationship between military power and economic interdependence.

Military operations continue across eastern Ukraine, while diplomatic negotiations, economic sanctions, energy transactions, technological innovation and international alliances increasingly influence the battlefield. Ukraine must therefore defend itself against Russia's military campaign while navigating a diplomatic environment in which decisions made in Washington, European capitals and Beijing can directly affect its ability to resist.

Three questions emerge from this situation. Can Ukraine preserve its sovereignty while resisting pressure to surrender territory? Will the United States continue to provide the military and strategic support Ukraine needs to defend itself? And can Europe, working with NATO and other partners, develop sufficient independent capacity to prevent Ukraine's fate from being determined by negotiations among the great powers?

These questions are inseparable. Ukraine's military position shapes its diplomatic leverage, while its international partners' decisions affect the resources available to sustain its defence. The war must consequently be understood within the wider framework of international power, economic interests and competing visions of European security.

Russia's war and Ukraine's struggle for sovereignty

At the heart of the conflict lies the fundamental question of Ukraine's right to determine its own political future and territorial boundaries. Russia seeks to consolidate its territorial acquisitions and secure an outcome that recognises its position as a major international power. Ukraine, by contrast, seeks to preserve its territorial integrity and prevent military aggression from setting a precedent that borders can be changed by force.

Presently, we are seeing a Russian military strategy increasingly dependent on attrition rather than conventional armoured breakthroughs. Small infantry assault groups, supported by drones, electronic warfare and obscuring technologies, are employed to identify Ukrainian defensive positions, disrupt communications and exploit weaknesses in frontline defences. The result is a battlefield characterised by high casualties, persistent surveillance, and rapidly changing tactics.

This development illustrates the extraordinary demands placed upon Ukrainian forces. Maintaining defensive positions requires not only trained personnel and conventional weapons, but also a continuous supply of drones, electronic countermeasures, intelligence, ammunition and air-defence systems. Traditional military advantages are being challenged by inexpensive autonomous technologies that can locate and attack expensive equipment and exposed personnel.

We have seen Ukrainian tactical adaptation and counter-offensive activity, including an operation in the Lyman sector that it identified as Operation Vivaldi. This operation disrupted Russian plans for an advance towards Barvinkove and the encirclement of important Ukrainian defensive positions in the Donetsk region. Ukraine's continuing challenge is to transform tactical adaptation into sustainable strategic defence. This requires effective command structures, secure communications, rapid incorporation of battlefield lessons and the ability to coordinate conventional forces with unmanned systems. It also requires sufficient personnel and material resources to sustain operations over a prolonged period.

In the past two months (September & October), Russia continued to face high battlefield losses, labour shortages, inflationary pressures and difficulties obtaining advanced technological components, which have constrained its ability to expand military production indefinitely. These limitations do not mean that Russia is incapable of continuing the war. Rather, they suggest that its capacity to sustain military pressure increasingly depends on domestic economic management and access to external supplies.

For Ukraine, the strategic objective is therefore not simply to survive each Russian offensive. It is to prevent Russia from converting its military pressure into a political settlement that permanently compromises Ukrainian sovereignty.

The United States: essential partner and source of strategic uncertainty

The relationship between Ukraine and the United States is one of the most consequential and uncertain elements of the conflict. American support matters strategically beyond weapons. Intelligence-sharing, satellite communications, advanced air defence and access to sophisticated military technologies contribute to Ukraine's capacity to detect threats, coordinate operations and defend its infrastructure. Any interruption in these arrangements can have immediate operational consequences.

In recent months, high-level diplomatic contacts have occurred between American representatives, Russian officials, European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with potential discussions of renewed trilateral negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States, possibly in Abu Dhabi in November 2026. Separately, Russia is described as promoting a broader summit involving the United States and China.