Ukraine-Russia war in 2026 – where do we now stand?

By January 2026, the full-scale war that began on 24 February 2022 had entered its fourth calendar year. Despite sustained Ukrainian resistance and remarkable international support, fighting across eastern and southern Ukraine remained fierce and destructive.

From Kyiv's vantage point, January was a microcosm of the wider conflict's persistent characteristics: Russia's relentless pressure through missiles, drones, and artillery; Ukraine's determined defence and limited counter-actions; a humanitarian crisis deepened by winter conditions; political and diplomatic activity at the highest levels; and ongoing international engagement.

Although hopes sometimes surged about breakthrough negotiations or decisive battlefield success, Ukraine faced the stark reality that the war continued to exact a heavy toll on its people, infrastructure, economy, and armed forces. At the same time, Ukrainians continued to see signs of resilience and strategic gains - in diplomacy, international commitments, and domestic innovation.

Military dynamics in January 2026 - frontline stalemate with local shifts

The military situation in January 2026 was defined less by sweeping territorial changes and more by incremental pressure and attrition. Neither side achieved a decisive breakthrough, although fighting ebbed and flowed in discrete sectors.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and near Kharkiv, grinding forward in places like Dronivka, Kleban-Byk, and Mala Tokmachka - albeit slowly - and engaging Ukrainian positions around Slovyansk and other points of resistance. This reflected a pattern of methodical advances where Russian forces aim to pressure Ukrainian defences and secure small tactical gains rather than pursue rapid deep thrusts.

Ukrainian forces persisted in defensive operations and local counter-actions. Though Ukraine was not on the offensive at the scale seen in some earlier phases of the war, limited actions around Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka illustrated efforts to regain initiative where possible.

Air and missile campaigns - casualties and operational strain

One of the defining features of the month was Russia's continued reliance on long-range strikes and drone barrages. Across January, Russian forces launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure, cities, and logistical hubs. The scale was often staggering: dozens of ballistic missiles, hypersonic cruise missiles, and hundreds of Shahed and other attack drones were reported in combined assaults over multiple nights.

Ukraine's air defences performed credibly in many of these engagements, downing a majority of incoming threats - but not all. Where interceptors failed to stop munitions, missiles and drones damaged electrical grids, heating infrastructure, and civilian buildings across Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and other regions. The result was widespread power outages and profound hardship for civilians during a winter cold snap.

Accurate casualty figures in real time are hard to confirm independently; however, open estimates suggest heavy attrition on both sides. Russia continued to suffer disproportionately high losses relative to gains, with some monitoring groups estimating Russian personnel and equipment casualties at levels that outstrip most modern conventional conflicts.

Ukraine also faced significant battlefield attrition and severe personnel pressures, especially as the war's duration continued to wear on recruiting, retention, and force sustainability. These dynamics informed strategic debate within Kyiv and among partners about force composition, mobilization priorities, and longer-term manpower strategies.

Tactical and technology trends

Beyond sheer numbers, the nature of the conflict increasingly underscored the importance of unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and layered air defence. Both sides used drones aggressively: Russia with swarms aimed at infrastructure and Ukraine with strike UAVs targeting Russian logistics and air defences. Russian mid-range systems were reportedly capable of hitting targets deep within Ukraine, revealing an escalation in technological adaptation.

For Ukraine, this presented both opportunities and vulnerabilities. On one hand, drones offered asymmetric capability to strike inside Russian lines; on the other, they forced Ukraine to allocate scarce air defence missiles to protect critical infrastructure, complicating resource prioritization.