Ukraine-Russia war in 2026 – where do we now stand?

Humanitarian impact

January ushered in one of the harshest winters of the war so far. Russia's drone and missile campaign, focused on energy networks, left millions without reliable heat, electricity, or water during freezing temperatures. In the capital Kyiv alone, tens of thousands of homes were without heating for days; service restoration became a daily priority, often outpaced by fresh attacks.

Additional Russian drone strikes claimed civilian lives and wounded others. Notably, a drone strike near Dnipro killed at least 12 mineworkers returning home from their shift, and separate attacks wounded civilians, including women and children, at a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian authorities condemned these as deliberate attacks on noncombatants.

Just surviving the winter became a central theme of civilian life. In front-line cities like Kherson, residents adapted by moving daily life underground - with schools, clinics, and recreational activities conducted in bomb shelters and basements to escape artillery, drones, and mines.

The ongoing strain of the conflict also manifested through prisoner treatment concerns, with reports of systematic abuse of Ukrainian POWs in Russian detention - a humanitarian and legal issue that Kyiv continued to spotlight internationally.

Diplomacy and international engagement

January 2026 saw one of the most intense diplomatic efforts since the beginning of the full-scale invasion: trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States held in Abu Dhabi. The meetings were notable for several reasons. They were rare - drawing three governments into direct negotiation - and they were backed by high-level engagement from global powers hoping to prevent further escalation or gain progress toward ending the war.

Unsurprisingly, the talks produced no immediate peace deal. The primary stumbling block remained Russia's refusal to withdraw troops from occupied territories and its insistence on maximalist political demands - including claims over Donetsk and other regions. Ukrainian and American representatives stressed that territorial integrity and withdrawal were non-negotiable starting points for peace.

Security guarantees and strategic support - international aid and sanctions

In the backdrop of diplomacy, Ukraine and the United States finalized security guarantees - a political and strategic milestone in early 2026. This signalled a deepening of bilateral defence commitments, providing Kyiv with assurances for long-term support that extend beyond ordinary military aid packages. These guarantees aimed to strengthen Ukraine's deterrence posture and long-term defence planning.

Western governments continued to enforce and expand sanctions on Russia to degrade Moscow's economic and military capacity. At the same time, deliveries of air-defence systems, armoured vehicles, ammunition, and financial aid to Ukraine persisted. Western leaders publicly reiterated commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty, even as debates over the pace and scope of support continued among allied capitals.

Economic and social context

Ukraine's economy in January 2026 wrestled with multiple challenges: disrupted energy supplies, damaged industrial and transport infrastructure, constrained agricultural exports, and the costs of sustaining a long-term war effort. Energy insecurity, driven by Russian strikes and compounded by winter conditions, amplified both economic and human hardship.

Social cohesion remained strong in many communities, with local organizations and volunteers supplementing government relief efforts. Nonetheless, the cumulative strain of four years of conflict shaped daily life for millions, especially those in frontline or heavily damaged regions.

Within Ukraine, public discourse in January dealt with a mix of endurance, scepticism, determination, and hope. President Zelensky and other leaders articulated cautious optimism - for example, suggesting peace could be achievable within a timeframe measured in months rather than years - but grounded this hope in pragmatic assessments of battlefield realities and diplomatic hurdles.

Ukrainian civil society continued to highlight war costs - civilian deaths, infrastructure loss, and human suffering - while also rallying around narratives of resilience, resistance, and national solidarity.