Five reasons why Ukraine will win this war, even without US support

The world watches as US aid to Ukraine stalls, raising fears that without American weapons, Ukraine may falter. But here's the truth: Ukraine will win-because victory depends on more than just money and missiles. Here's why.

1. Europe has stepped up

For too long, Europe relied on the US for security. But that's changing. Europe's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has marked a historic shift in its approach to security and defence. After decades of relying heavily on the United States for military protection, European nations have recognized the existential threat posed by Russian aggression and have stepped up accordingly. The European Union has now surpassed the US in total military aid commitments to Ukraine, with major powers like Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland significantly expanding their defence budgets and arms production. Germany, once hesitant to engage in military support, has become one of Ukraine's leading suppliers of advanced weaponry, including Leopard 2 tanks and IRIS-T air defence systems. Similarly, the UK and France have provided long-range missiles, while Poland has positioned itself as a key logistical hub for arms transfers and training. This level of commitment underscores Europe's growing resolve to ensure Ukraine's victory.

Beyond material support, Europe's deeper involvement reflects a stark realization: if Ukraine falls, Russia's ambitions will not stop at its borders. Countries like the Baltic states, Poland, and even Germany recognize that a Russian victory would embolden further aggression, jeopardizing NATO's eastern flank. As a result, European nations are not only supporting Ukraine but also fortifying their own defences, increasing military spending, and working toward greater strategic autonomy. This shift signals a long-term transformation in European security policy, one that makes Ukraine's victory not just a possibility, but a necessity for Europe's own survival. With sustained European backing, Ukraine has the resources and military support to continue resisting Russia's invasion and ultimately reclaim its sovereign territory.

2. Russia Is crumbling from within

Putin's war machine is rotting from the inside. Corruption, infighting, and low morale are eating away at Russia's ability to fight. Wagner is gone. Russia's internal stability is eroding under the immense strain of its war against Ukraine. The economy, already weakened by Western sanctions, is struggling to sustain a prolonged conflict. Russia's military-industrial complex faces severe shortages of high-tech components due to export controls, forcing reliance on outdated Soviet-era stockpiles and imports from pariah states like North Korea and Iran. Meanwhile, the Kremlin's desperate recruitment tactics-press-ganging convicts, conscripting ethnic minorities, and extending service contracts indefinitely-highlight the severe manpower crisis within its armed forces. As casualties mount, public discontent simmers, particularly among the families of soldiers sent to the front lines with inadequate training and equipment. While Putin maintains an iron grip on power, the cracks are becoming more visible as economic hardship, corruption, and war fatigue deepen.

Beyond the battlefield, internal divisions within Russia's elite are becoming harder to suppress. High-profile defections, unexplained deaths of oligarchs, and growing tensions between the Kremlin and private military groups like the now-defunct Wagner Group suggest that loyalty within Putin's inner circle is fraying. Regional unrest is also on the rise, with nationalist movements in places like Dagestan and Tatarstan challenging Moscow's authority. The failed Wagner mutiny in 2023 exposed just how fragile Russia's centralized control has become, and as military defeats mount, more factions may seek to exploit Putin's vulnerabilities. With a weakening economy, a struggling military, and rising domestic unrest, Russia is not only losing the war in Ukraine-it is crumbling from within, setting the stage for potential upheaval or even regime change.

3. Ukraine's tech and innovation are outpacing Russia

While Russia fights with Soviet-era tactics, Ukraine is rewriting modern warfare. Ukraine's technological edge and innovative warfare strategies have given it a significant advantage over Russia. From the beginning of the war, Ukraine has leveraged modern technology, advanced Western weaponry, and battlefield adaptability to outmanoeuvre Russian forces. Ukrainian engineers and military leaders have rapidly integrated AI-driven targeting systems, satellite intelligence from allies like the US and private companies such as SpaceX, and drone warfare to great effect. The use of long-range drones, both domestically produced and modified commercial models, has allowed Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, hitting military bases, logistics hubs, and even the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Unlike Russia, which relies on outdated Soviet-era tactics and a rigid command structure, Ukraine's decentralized, agile approach has proven far more effective in modern warfare.

Beyond the battlefield, Ukraine's innovation-driven economy and tech sector continue to thrive despite the war. Ukrainian developers, cybersecurity experts, and engineers have played a crucial role in countering Russian cyberattacks, ensuring battlefield communications, and maintaining digital infrastructure. The country's IT sector remains a global powerhouse, with tech startups contributing not just to the war effort but also to the broader economy. Meanwhile, Russia's technological stagnation, exacerbated by sanctions and brain drain, has left it struggling to match Ukraine's advancements. As the war drags on, Ukraine's ability to out-innovate Russia in both military and digital warfare will remain a decisive factor in its eventual victory.

4. The global south Isn't buying Putin's Lies

Despite Russia's attempts to court the Global South with anti-Western rhetoric, many nations are not buying Putin's justifications for the war. While some governments in Africa, Latin America, and Asia have remained officially neutral, the realities on the ground tell a different story. Ukraine has actively engaged with these regions, strengthening diplomatic ties and demonstrating that Russia's war threatens global food security, energy stability, and international law. Many countries that once saw Moscow as a Cold War-era ally now recognize that Russia's invasion is a blatant act of aggression rather than a defensive operation against NATO expansion. As a result, even traditionally non-aligned nations are becoming more wary of deepening ties with the Kremlin.

Furthermore, Russia's attempts to position itself as a champion of the Global South ring hollow when contrasted with its actions. The disruption of Ukrainian grain exports, which heavily impacts food supplies in Africa and the Middle East, has turned many nations against Russia. Meanwhile, China and India, two of Russia's key economic partners, have refused to provide direct military support and have taken advantage of Moscow's desperation by demanding steep discounts on oil and gas. This dynamic underscores that while some countries may maintain economic ties with Russia, they are doing so out of pragmatism rather than ideological alignment. As Ukraine continues to build diplomatic alliances and expose Russia's exploitation of the Global South, Moscow's influence in these regions will continue to erode.

5. Ukraine's will to win Is unbreakable

No amount of firepower can defeat a nation that refuses to surrender. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. Their motivation isn't a pay cheque - it's survival, freedom, and dignity. That's why they've pushed back a so-called "superpower" for three years and counting. The US may be divided, but Ukraine is not. The West will not abandon Ukraine because Ukraine will not abandon itself.

Ukraine's will to win remains unbreakable, fuelled by an unshakable determination to defend its sovereignty, identity, and future. From the first days of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainians have demonstrated extraordinary resilience, refusing to bow to overwhelming force. Civilians joined territorial defence units, volunteers mobilized to supply troops, and entire communities adapted to wartime conditions with remarkable ingenuity. Even in cities devastated by Russian attacks, the spirit of resistance remains strong. Unlike Russia's conscripted soldiers, who often fight out of fear or coercion, Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland, their families, and their freedom. This deep sense of purpose gives them a psychological and moral edge that no amount of Russian firepower can erase.

Ukraine's national unity has only strengthened as the war has dragged on. Political divisions that once defined the country have been set aside in the face of a common enemy, and support for victory remains steadfast across all regions. Despite missile strikes, blackouts, and immense hardships, Ukrainians continue rebuilding, innovating, and pushing forward. President Zelenskyy's leadership has played a crucial role in maintaining morale, rallying both domestic and international support. As history has shown, wars are not won by brute force alone-willpower, unity, and determination are equally decisive. Ukraine's refusal to surrender, even against a larger and better-equipped adversary, ensures that its fight for freedom will not only continue but ultimately prevail.