Ukraine-Russia war in 2026 – where do we now stand?

Strategic outlook: Ukraine's assessment

By the end of January 2026, several themes emerge that Ukrainians see as shaping the immediate future of the conflict:

1. Attrition and defence over breakthroughs: The war has entered a phase where attrition and resilience matter more than rapid territorial change. Ukraine's ability to hold the line and absorb attacks is a continuing testament to its military professionalism and national resolve.

2. International support remains critical: Diplomatic engagement and material aid, especially from the U.S. and European partners, is absolutely indispensable. Ukraine awaits new security guarantees which represent a promising, albeit long-term, development.

3. Humanitarian hardship: The winter months intensify civilian suffering and highlight the urgent need for more effective protection of infrastructure and populations.

4. Negotiations without compromise on core principles: Peace talks offer a platform for dialogue, but Ukraine's leadership maintains that peace cannot and will not come at the cost of sovereignty or territorial concessions.

5. Technological evolution of warfare: The continued innovation and adaptation of unmanned systems, air defence networks, and cyber capabilities underscore that modern technological trends would be central to the conflict in 2026 and beyond.

January 2026 demonstrated the war's enduring brutality and complexity. For Ukraine, it was a month marked by tenacious defence against a relentless adversary, by intricate diplomacy that both advanced and exposed fault lines in international efforts, and by profound humanitarian hardship endured by ordinary citizens.

From Kyiv's standpoint, the war's continuation into its fourth year is not a defeat but evidence of a campaign defined by resilience, solidarity, and unyielding commitment to national survival. The balance of 2026 remains uncertain, but even in the midst of grinding conflict, Ukraine's leaders and its people continue to chart a course aimed at securing sovereignty, dignity, and lasting peace.