Why real political change in Malaysia is not going to happen

The conservatism of the civil service is a major barrier to any government that comes into power and advocates reform against those in the civil service who see these reforms as hurting Malays.

Towards Malay entropy

The unity government could not have been created without the assistance of the Agong. Demographically, Anwar is an accidental prime minister. He holds office at the pleasure of the Agong and other rulers.

But Anwar must show enough creativity as a leader. Within the bounds the establishment can accept, he will convince everyone he is a worthy prime minister. In this case Anwar will become part of the Malay polity, which he wants.

The peninsula part of Malaysia is heading towards a natural Malay-centric rule. The coming state election results will confirm this. Anwar will still lead the federal government and can run his full term. Sabah and Sarawak will move towards much more autonomy. The federal government must be seen as being Malay-centric to have any chance of winning GE16.

This is Anwar's challenge. Anwar has some latitude to define what Malay-centric can mean, within narrow boundaries. This is why Madani must be more than a slogan.

In this, Anwar is once again a key player in what the future of Malaysia will look like. He must be judged on how effectively he can stem the influence of Ketuanan Melayu-Islam, propagated by PAS, under the present leadership.

If Anwar fails, then Perikatan Nasional will have an opportunity to form a government after GE16. The last line of defence against a Ketuanan Melayu-Islamic government is the moderating potential of Bersatu upon PAS. That makes Muhyiddin the second most important person in Malaysian politics.

Either way, Malaysia will see Malay-centric governments once again. We can already see the concept of "reformasi" riding into the sunset.