The future of Bougainville a challenge for Australia as well as Papua New Guinea

Before offering just a couple of suggestions what added assistance Australia might offer, the question of just how Bougainville's future impacts on the all-important "Australian National Interest" needs to be considered.

Bougainville is strategically located. It is relatively close to Australia. In the past there were regular air services between Bougainville and Cairns. But it also is separated by a narrow strait from The Solomon Islands an independent nation.

It is not insignificant that in the last year or so The Solomon Islands has totally shifted its diplomatic relations from a strong alignment with Taiwan to one with the Peoples Republic of China. Even though opposition to abandoning Taiwan completely remains The Solomon Islands has already engaged comprehensively with China including loans for infrastructure and trade and business agreements.

The Solomon Islands will be watching closely the process towards independence for Bougainville. It has its own internal breakaway pressures and the fact it is increasingly uder PRC influence simply cannot be ignored.

The other aspect of the process as it relates to the Australian national interest concerns any impetus independence for Bougainville might give to potential breakaway/independence movements in other provinces of Papua New Guinea. This issue was rightly raised during last week's discussions by the PNG Prime Minister.

It is overwhelmingly in our national interest for the unity of Papua New Guinea – delivered so successfully at independence in 1975 – and maintained ever since to be maintained to the greatest possible extent.

If and when Bougainville is granted full independence the pressures for autonomy, and independence, elsewhere in PNG will grow. It exists already especially in the neighbouring province of New Ireland where the Governor, Sir Julius Chan, has been pushing for greater autonomy for his province.

The final issue which just cannot be ignored is whether or not China will seek to strengthen its relationship with Bougainville in a way that would be contrary to our national interest. We simply have to assume it will seek to do so.

There is no doubt PRC "interests" supported a number of candidates in the provincial elections last year. Fortunately these interests seem to have backed losers! But given the state of our relations with China, any step to try and marginalise Australia's role would hardly be a surprise.

Australia needs to be putting together a team of advisors with substantial Bougainville experience to formulate strategies that can carefully enhance our assistance for the government and people of Bougainville. The names of Anthony Regan and Ian Prentice come readily to mind.

The one suggestion I would make now – I will have some more ideas in a future contribution – is that we focus on how we can enhance "parliamentary democracy" in Bougainville. The basis for a strong parliamentary democracy exists already but it will need significant extra resourcing and skills support post- independence.

Before I conclude I want to make just a few observations on the road ahead.