The future of Bougainville a challenge for Australia as well as Papua New Guinea

Of the many foreign policy and "strategic interest" challenges Australia will face in the next few years one of the most important will relate to the status of Bougainville within Papua New Guinea – and in particular the implementation of the 2019 referendum in which 97% of the people of Bougainville voted for independence.

Last week the PNG Prime Minister, James Marape, and the ABG President, Ishmael Toroama, met to try and agree on a "road map" towards independence. The outcome of the meeting is somewhat unclear despite media reports that there was agreement independence would not happen before 2025 or after 2027 perhaps not fully reflective of the actual position or the time frames indicated.

The process agreed to by the leaders would indicate a defined step by step road map leading towards independence. But it includes a whole series of national government actions that need to be taken – and there is no guarantee a future PNG government will undertake all of them. It also requires action by the ABG administration that is more certain to be undertaken in the stated time frames.

I will go into the complexities of that below, but consideration needs to be given as to just what any independence timetable will mean for Australia.

The Australian Government principally via the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is going to have to navigate Australia's role very carefully. My confidence it will do so is hardly strengthened by our recent management of key strategic issues with our closest neighbour!

Australia has no role in determining Bougainville's independence, none whatsoever. It is entirely a matter for the PNG Government, and ultimately the PNG National Parliament, and the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG).

There will be those in DFAT and elsewhere who will hold to the belief that independence is not inevitable. Despite the complex processes that have to be followed to facilitate independence the view that it can be readily blocked is hard to sustain. .

What Australia needs to do is engage fully with both the PNG Government and the ABG with a view to playing a wholly constructive role in the economic and social development of Bougainville in the critical years ahead.

Australia has provided considerable support for Bougainville since the peace process was formalised but in the face of the prospect of independence that will have to be stepped up considerably, but very carefully.

And it will have to be done in full consultation with both governments.

What makes the task even more hazardous is the reality that reluctance to grant Bougainville independence clearly exists at the highest levels of the PNG government, and almost certainly across the rest of the nation.

On the other hand support for independence on Bougainville clearly remains almost unanimous. There are no indications the 97% yes vote two years ago has diminished.

Before offering just a couple of suggestions what added assistance Australia might offer, the question of just how Bougainville's future impacts on the all-important "Australian National Interest" needs to be considered.

Bougainville is strategically located. It is relatively close to Australia. In the past there were regular air services between Bougainville and Cairns. But it also is separated by a narrow strait from The Solomon Islands an independent nation.

It is not insignificant that in the last year or so The Solomon Islands has totally shifted its diplomatic relations from a strong alignment with Taiwan to one with the Peoples Republic of China. Even though opposition to abandoning Taiwan completely remains The Solomon Islands has already engaged comprehensively with China including loans for infrastructure and trade and business agreements.

The Solomon Islands will be watching closely the process towards independence for Bougainville. It has its own internal breakaway pressures and the fact it is increasingly uder PRC influence simply cannot be ignored.

The other aspect of the process as it relates to the Australian national interest concerns any impetus independence for Bougainville might give to potential breakaway/independence movements in other provinces of Papua New Guinea. This issue was rightly raised during last week's discussions by the PNG Prime Minister.

It is overwhelmingly in our national interest for the unity of Papua New Guinea – delivered so successfully at independence in 1975 – and maintained ever since to be maintained to the greatest possible extent.

If and when Bougainville is granted full independence the pressures for autonomy, and independence, elsewhere in PNG will grow. It exists already especially in the neighbouring province of New Ireland where the Governor, Sir Julius Chan, has been pushing for greater autonomy for his province.

The final issue which just cannot be ignored is whether or not China will seek to strengthen its relationship with Bougainville in a way that would be contrary to our national interest. We simply have to assume it will seek to do so.

There is no doubt PRC "interests" supported a number of candidates in the provincial elections last year. Fortunately these interests seem to have backed losers! But given the state of our relations with China, any step to try and marginalise Australia's role would hardly be a surprise.

Australia needs to be putting together a team of advisors with substantial Bougainville experience to formulate strategies that can carefully enhance our assistance for the government and people of Bougainville. The names of Anthony Regan and Ian Prentice come readily to mind.

The one suggestion I would make now – I will have some more ideas in a future contribution – is that we focus on how we can enhance "parliamentary democracy" in Bougainville. The basis for a strong parliamentary democracy exists already but it will need significant extra resourcing and skills support post- independence.

Before I conclude I want to make just a few observations on the road ahead.

The PNG Prime Minister and the Bougainville President agreed on a series of consultative and constitutional processes that have to be concluded before actual independence can happen.

The overwhelming requirement is going to be "goodwill" on both sides!

Relations between the PNG National Government and the ABG have generally been sound – even though some clear differences remain. That needs to continue even with the complication of the PNG national elections taking place in the middle of 2022.

The initial key decision on Independence rests with the PNG National Parliament. It won't be the current Parliament but the parliament elected next year with the commencement of constitutional and legislative requirements scheduled to be tabled in 2023.

The greatest certainly about the next national elections is that many of the current members won't be re-elected. In the past it has been as much as 75% of members losing their seats. Next year might be no different. Were the next Parliament to decline to proceed with the independence process the consequences would be massive.

So the road ahead will be potentially very hazardous. It is a road Australia will have to watch from the sidelines very carefully.

In the meantime Australia needs to begin serious evaluation of significant additional support for the good people of Bougainville who we need to ensure remain our good neighbours and friends!