Trump, Iran, and the folly of demanding surrender

The concessions required of both the US and Iran are inherently difficult to negotiate and will take time, yet they are fundamental to any viable agreement. To reach a viable agreement, Iran and the US would need to take a series of concrete, verifiable steps that directly address the core security concerns of both sides.

Iran must immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial and military shipping and commit to sustained freedom of navigation. It must cease arming Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and allied militias in Iraq, and gradually scale back its offensive ballistic missile program under intrusive verification. Iran must also stop threatening Israel with genocidal rhetoric, which has been and continues to be the source of their intense hostility and one of the main sources of the region's instability, and ship out or downgrade its 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile.

In return, the US must also remove its military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire without stipulating an expiration date. It must recognize Iran's right to a civilian nuclear program under the strictest safeguards, to ensure there is no diversion to weaponization. Washington should begin releasing Iran's frozen funds and gradually lift sanctions, in a carefully calibrated manner tied to verified compliance. The United States must also formally pledge non interference in Iran's domestic politics, renouncing regime change operations and covert destabilization while reserving the right to speak out on human rights.

If both sides fully adhere to this process over time, they can move toward structured discussions on the gradual normalization of relations, including the restoration of diplomatic representation and expanded economic and cultural ties.

Despite Trump's claim of victory, Iran emerged as the de facto winner in its confrontation with the US and Israel, both of which failed to achieve regime change or spark a popular uprising. Instead, Iran's leadership is now younger and more resolute. The conflict exposed the limits of US and Israeli military power, while Iran demonstrated resilience and its ability to disrupt global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In doing so, Tehran signaled that it is no longer a marginal actor, but a power to be reckoned with.

To curb Iran's extremism, the US must abandon fantasies of regime change and recognize Tehran's security concerns and legitimate interests. Coercion and demands for capitulation only harden resistance. Stability requires reciprocal concessions and sustained diplomacy. Anything less will deepen confrontation, reinforce Iran's deterrence, and drive the region back to the brink.