Can Trump break the Iran deadlock and reshape the Middle East?

Third, Tehran may opt to normalize relations with the US, as Trump has indicated, provided that the US will not seek regime change at any time and Iran would be left alone to address its internal affairs as it wishes. This is the most likely option as Trump prefers to discuss normalization and peace, provided Iran meets several conditions.

Iran must fully and completely adhere to the new deal and verifiably idle its massive nuclear industrial complex to focus solely on the peaceful use of its nuclear program; cease its support of any extremist groups that threaten any of the region's states; stop the existential threats against Israel; not interfere directly or indirectly in the internal affairs of any country in the area; and finally demonstrate its willingness to become a constructive regional player.

The rift between Trump and Netanyahu

Whereas Trump is undoubtedly open to normalization of relations with Iran, he is not in sync with Netanyahu, who opposes any US-Iran agreement. Netanyahu insists on a "Libya-style" deal requiring complete surrender of nuclear assets, and hasn't ruled out unilateral military action. Other than Netanyahu, regional players, especially the Arab Gulf states, as well as Trump, want to avoid a military confrontation with Iran, knowing that it would be utter madness on Netanyahu's part even to contemplate attacking Iran's nuclear complexes, ignoring the horrific regional ramifications that would ensue.

For this reason, on almost every significant strategic and geopolitical issue that concerns Israel, Trump has elected to act unilaterally on several fronts completely different from what Netanyahu would have chosen, including seeking a new nuclear deal with Iran, a cease-fire with the Houthis, embracing the new Syrian regime, and negotiating directly with Hamas on releasing the hostages and potentially offering Iran a new horizon, a move that Iran may willingly embrace.

Destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure will only make Iran more determined to acquire nuclear weapons, and the enmity toward Israel will become irreversibly mortal. In the final analysis, Iran is a regional powerhouse with a population of 90 million, has enormous natural and human resources, enjoys a crucial geostrategic location, and appreciates a rich history that endows it with a unique regional presence. Even after suffering a devastating war, Iran will emerge again as a major power that Trump and Netanyahu must reckon with. Iran is here to stay, and sanity dictates finding a long-lasting, peaceful solution to its nuclear program.

Seeking normalization of relations with Iran and moving toward a peace agreement, which Trump indicated he would pursue, represents a historic geopolitical leap. It would dramatically reduce tension between Iran and Israel and transform the region from being plagued by conflicts and turmoil into a peaceful area that enjoys security and prosperity. Ironically, Trump, with his mountains of shortcomings, is in a unique position to attempt what his predecessors dared not.