A ‘failed’ Papua New Guinea national elections would be a disaster for Papua and Australia

So even before polling begins, the elections process has been flawed.

What needs to happen is for the five weeks between now and the end of polling to function smoothly?

With over 50 political parties contesting the elections the makeup of the next parliament is impossible to predict. It is even more so given the history of election in which between half and three quarters of sitting members are not re-elected.

There can be little doubt that the incumbent prime minister James Marape and his predecessor Peter O'Neill are contenders to be elected prime minister. But they are no more than contenders!

Just how many sitting members are re-elected will be a key factor. But as big a factor will be which contender is best organised when newly elected members are known.

The horse trading will probably run for three or four weeks.

Then the parliament will meet in late August to elect the next Prime Minister.

But in the two months between now and then a lot may go wrong.

We have to hope that the killings and lawlessness seen already won't continue when it gets down to the serious business of voting and forming the government.

With around 3,500 candidates it is clear that politics is "big business" in Papua New Guinea - I would argue the biggest business!

Australia must watch from the sidelines.

We have to hope that it is not just the biggest business, but also a very transparent and successful one in the weeks ahead.