History is against Albanese but does that matter?

Labor Party history is full of tragic near misses, from Doc Evatt to Bill Hayden to Kim Beazley to Bill Shorten.

Albanese is acutely aware of this, but there is another fact against him.

Since the Second World War, just three Labor leaders have led the party from opposition to government – Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd.

And these Labor Prime Ministers all had one thing in common – not one of them had ever served as a Minister in a Labor government.

Indeed, Labor's history is one of renewal. When the Chifley government fell in 1949, the next Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was still three years away from entering parliament. Likewise, in 1975 when Whitlam was sensationally sacked, Bob Hawke was still President of the ACTU. Kevin Rudd in turn did not enter parliament for another term after the Keating government fell in 1996.

This may seem trivial but, as the natural party of opposition, Labor's stints in government have often been full of wasted potential, leading subsequent Labor leaders to distance themselves from previous Labor governments.

As a case study, the Keating government wore out its welcome and alienated traditional Labor voters with its economic liberalism and preference for symbolic issues such as indigenous reconciliation and the Republic. Labor insiders saw this as a problem and the party under Kim Beazley then Simon Crean did everything they could to distance themselves from the Keating government in which they had both served. However, such rebranding was insurmountable for two leaders both tarred by their association with the previous Labor government and it took a fresh face in Kevin Rudd to finally lead Labor to victory.

Albanese does not have the luxury of offering himself as a fresh alternative. As Minister for Infrastructure and Transport (2007-2013), Leader of the House (2007-2013) and Deputy Prime Minister (2013), Albanese was instrumental in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd governments.

This means that he has a lot of experience but, sometimes in politics, experience can be a disadvantage.

That's certainly the case in the US with untried candidates like JFK, Bill Clinton, George Bush Jr, Barack Obama and Donald Trump all beating opponents with far greater political experience, while veterans like Bob Dole, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton have been confined to 'also ran' status.

But history is not determinist and factors like experience may be secondary to wider factors such as the overall context of the time.

For instance, Cold War hysteria clearly played a role in keeping Labor out of office during the Menzies era, something that Labor under Albanese does not have