Why is it so impossible to predict the outcome of PNG elections

With national elections to formally commence in a matter of weeks, a number of our readers have asked me to predict the most likely outcome.

I have observed every PNG national elections since 1980: 1980, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 20012, and 2017.

Despite that experience I find it impossible to predict with any confidence who will win, let alone why.

As part of my "information” series for On Line Opinion on the PNG National Elections I need to devote my first contribution to the absolute complexity of national polls in our closest neighbour. By comparison they make even a complete Senate count simple by comparison.

As I have written in the past the biggest "business” In Papua New Guinea is politics! And that is just not when the five year election cycle looms.

The coming three or four months will hardly be "productive" for the already struggling PNG business and investment sectors. The elections, and the unique nature of the PNG campaigns, simply dominates almost every aspect of life.....in urban settlements and rural communities alike.

In a Parliament of just over 110 members - single chamber though provincial governors are elected separately - there are likely to be FIVE THOUSAND candidates! So that means an average of 50 candidates per open and regional electorate.

When I last checked there were just over 25 registered political parties - and another 20 or so that are not formally registered.

Unlike Australia where media and online advertising dominates, until recent times just about all campaigning in PNG consisted of large rallies and the distribution of posters. The coming election will see a significant lift in "online" campaigning as mobile phones and the internet expand.

But it is questionable how much impact "online" campaigning will have - no doubt more than in 2017, but in many electorates not enough to make a significant difference. It doesn’t help that there have been several changes to the method of voting and counting in recent years - it began as first past the post, then part professional, then full preferential. It would be an understatement to say the good people of PNG are entitled to be confused!

The other troubling aspects of the polls relate to electoral boundaries and the integrity of the electoral roll.

There has not been a full redistribution of electoral boundaries since BEFORE Independence in 1975!  As a result, the electorates do not even approximate "one vote one value". In some seats, there are 180,000 to-200,000 on the roll. In other seats the number of enrolees is below 100,000.

The difficulty is that the constitution effectively provides that parliament can only reject all proposed boundary changes. Given the highly competitive nature of PNG politics that is just not going to happen, where the removal of one "house line" from a rural seat could change its complexion completely.

So elections will be held in May-June on a part preferential count basis. That just makes predicting the outcome even more difficult.  Boundaries that are not balanced, a doubtful set of electoral rolls across the nation, and a voting system that is only part-preferential.

There is no talk of restricting the campaign period to one month given evidence that Covid-19 remains a serious problem, especially in rural areas.

What ever happened, the elections with take place in May and June, with the complex process by which the next Prime Minister is chosen happening in July and August.

Again, the method of choosing the Prime Minister differs from Australia, as it must, given the weak party system. The Parliament will meet after the election and choose the Prime Minister by a ballot on the floor of Parliament.

While it has become "practice" that the two largest "groups” of MPs will nominate a candidate for PM. The process of selecting that candidate is an absolute nightmare, especially of no party, or even a group of parties, gets close to a majority on the floor of Parliament.

This is the most unedifying aspect of the election process - horse trading, money changing hands, miniseries promised and so on. The two "camps" usually gather at luxury hotels and resorts for several weeks to consolidate their "numbers".

Sadly, in doing so the wishes of member’s electorates - who only just voted for them to represent them - are often totally ignored.

But such as democracy - PNG style.

It remains robustly democratic, but it has serious flaws for which there is essentially no path to navigate to a more honest and transparent system.

The system sadly does not guarantee political stability after an election - and that really only happens if one party, or leader, has a clear majority of MPs. That happens, but not always!

I assume the two main contenders for the Prime Ministership as of today are the incumbent, James Marape, and his predecessor, Peter O'Neill. But the field might grow depending on the make-up of the parties and groups after polling concludes.

The process is hardly made more predictable by the reality that somewhere between 50% and 70% of members lose their seats at each election. And the losers can include party leaders and Ministers.

Politics in PNG is a costly and a hazardous business!

It is complex in so many ways. Sadly, this election shows no signs of reducing the complexity and enhancing transparency!

Is it any wonder that the end result every five years is so wholly unpredictable?