The Solomons engagement has turned into a huge negative for Australia

Readers may recall I supported the sending of Australian defence and police personnel to the Solomon Islands after rioting and destruction in the country's capital, Honiara, even though I did so with some concerns.

I was wrong. This was a poorly constructed, and now frankly ill-judged exercise that raises real questions about the intelligence capacity – and frankly competence – of the Department of Foreign affairs, and the Pacific Office in particular.

The request for our engagement came from a desperate Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, Manessah Sogavare, who is no friend of Australia, and who it ought to be remembered drove the SI shift from recognising Taiwan to recognising The People's Republic of China. And he has driven the PRC engagement to the extent that China has an overwhelming influence across the SI economy – with over 80 per cent of the nation's exports going to China.

When he requested Australia's assistance, surely our High Commission in Honiara, and the heads of DFAT and the Pacific Office, sought intelligence briefings on how genuine the request was, and importantly whether it was a "stop" gap emergency measure that might be followed by an "invitation" to China to assist once Australia (and PNG, Fiji and New Zealand) had restored basic law and order?

At the time our engagement was announced it was widely reported that one factor in accepting the request was that the alternative would be the direct involvement of China.

Our engagement was trumpeted as a victory for the "Step-Up - Pacific" policy and it even suggested this was a serious "setback" to China's influence!

Our engagement was short and sharp. In terms of restoring relative peace, it was successful. There were no casualties.

After a few weeks the process of withdrawing Australian, and Pacific Island and NZ, personnel began. The mission was described as a success by the federal government.

But even before the last Australian and other personnel were withdrawn the SI Prime Minister announced that he has accepted an offer from the People's Republic of China to supply "non-lethal" crowd control equipment AND a contingent of six PRC police personnel who will "train their Solomon Islands counterparts".

There can be no doubt the initial six will just be the start. China has extended its influence from construction, mining, telecommunications, government services, sport and forestry to law and order.

And Australia, together with New Zealand and other Pacific participants are left like the proverbial "shag on the rock".

Yes, we did the hard yards, and did them well. Restoring basic law and order was relatively easy.

But in the longer term China will be calling the shots when it comes to maintaining "law and order" (and crushing dissent) in one of our closest and most strategically significant neighbours!

Our future capacity to "influence" police training, and maintaining law and order, will surely be limited, if not entirely non-existent.

China will not be interested in "sharing" the role it has been given, which will surely be expanded for as long as Sogavare remains Prime Minister – and he recently won a vote of confidence in the SI Parliament.

The silence from the federal government on this most significant step by the SI Prime Minister and his Government has been deafening. Conveniently, the announcement came during the Christmas-New Year period.

The media has not been silent with the Weekend Guardian highlighting the consequences of the decision for Australia and regional security and stability. Even the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal offered the view that the time had surely arrived for the United States to increase its engagement with the SI – and across the South Pacific generally.

Sadly it is a bit too late for that!

What needs to happen as a result of this latest development is what I have been advocating for some time – if we are going to counter China's growing influence we are going to have to be "big and bold" and we need to persuade the United States, New Zealand and countries such as Japan to do so as well.

China's influence in our closest neighbour, Papua New Guinea, continues to grow. The national elections in Papua New Guinea mid-year will be critical in determining just how much more it grows in the next year or two.

So far the China influence in PNG has not become a factor in the run up to the PNG elections, but I see signs it will do so.

There is one country where it will be an influence in national elections to be held later this year – Fiji. The former Fiji PM, Sitiveni Rabuka, has announced he will be contesting the national elections and the China influence (especially through Belt and Road loan arrangements) will be his top concern.

The Australian Government needs to have an urgent and searching look at its strategy in our region – not just to counter China but also rebuild our influence and credibility.

The engagement in the Solomon Islands sadly has not done so. If anything it will eventually be seen as a significant setback. Sogavare's opponents, who are principally from the Malaita Province, will hardly be grateful to Australia for bailing him out of a difficult position, only opening the way for China to significantly expand its influence in the all-important national; security and law and order areas.

The Solomon Islands is a small nation, but it is strategically very important for Australia and our allies.

It also adjoins the PNG Province of Bougainville, which is moving towards total independence from Papua New Guinea within the next five years and the consequences for regional stability and influence that will inevitably bring.

Lessons must surely be learnt from the recent Solomon Islands intervention and just how quickly a seemingly positive move turned very negative!