The Solomon Islands intervention is a high risk strategy

There are basically three reasons while I believe Australia needs an exit strategy and a regional handover as soon as possible.

Firstly, the SI Prime Minister is NO friend of Australia. He opposed the RAMSI mission led and funded (around $2 billion) by Australia. When he switched diplomatic representation from Taiwan to the PRC he did absolutely nothing to stop his Mining Minister vindictively cancelling the mining licence of an Australian company, cancelled management and workers visas, and within months handed over the licence to a PRC mining company.

The result was that up to 8,000 Australian investors lost all the funds they put into a project they believed in. The company has since been de-listed.

Some commentators have observed that Australia reacted so quickly out of concern that if we didn't Sogavare would turn to China to provide direct assistance to deal with the lawlessness and destruction. I actually doubt that, as had he done so the internal political problems he is facing would have multiplied – the prospect of Red Army on the streets of Honiara is something the very pro-China Sogavare would have surely baulked at!

The second reason why I have real concern at our engagement is that it will not, and cannot, resolve deep seated ethnic differences and tensions that were at the heart of the causes of the original breakdown in law and order that led to the initial RAMSI mission.

The internal political issues relating to the under-development of Malaita, and low job and small business opportunities across the province generally, are matters any level of Australian intervention cannot resolve.

The third reason why I have concerns about our engagement, especially if it extends beyond a few weeks, is really outlined with great clarity in "The Diplomat" article by Transform Aqorau.

He has pointed out that though the land of the Solomon Islands is owned by the local people, they are largely bystanders while "outsiders", principally Malaysian, Filipino and Chinese loggers and mining companies not just control the resources, but also the "political processes" involving the SI's politicians.

The article points out that these foreign interests have more access to the SI Prime Minister and Ministers than do local people and local businesses!

Australia has to be very careful not to be seen to be propping up a corrupt and incompetent government. And it most certainly cannot afford to be seen to be supporting a government increasingly beholden to China – something I have written about, giving multiple examples, recently.

The issue of the exploitation of the nation's resources highlighted by Aqorau is of growing concern to the people of the Solomon Islands, and not just those from Malaita.

Nothing better outlines the extent of the exploitation than is the reality that today almost 100 per cent of the nation's pristine timber exports go to China. The Chinese stranglehold over the economy, and the influence over the government, is an issue no intervention can resolve.