Economic growth, population and influence (power)

Will we allow an increase in the flow of migrants, helping to ensure our ongoing economic prosperity? Or will we maintain the very restrictive current regime? The probability is that any increases in current rates of migration will be very politically difficult, and so will be resisted.

Japan is a good example: they currently admit almost no migrants at all. Germany did allow one million migrants into the country in 2015, not for philanthropic reasons but in order to prop-up their declining population. This resulted in the growth of right wing groups opposed to migration. 'Brexit' was driven mainly by migration issues. The proposed border wall on the US/Mexico border indicates a desire to limit migration from Latin America into the USA. Even if the 'Democratic West' does allow increased migration, in view of the number of people involved it may not solve the problem.

So what does the future look like?

The USA and the 'Western Democracies' will continue to be a powerful influence on democracy, but over the period in question (2020-2050) it will probably become a slowly declining force.

China will obviously still be a powerful player. However, the Chinese population is declining (some forecasts think at a higher rate than suggested in the chart above). It is also aging. Will they allow large migration from Africa or Asia? There is no evidence to suggest that it will.

India's population will continue to grow. It is democratic, though still has a very young population. Will India continue to support its democracy, even if the 'Western Democracies' gradually fade (as seems likely)?

Africa is corrupt and poorly governed and will likely remain so – designed as it is to service an elite that, because of population growth, will become a smaller and smaller percentage of the population. One option – other than allowing increased migration – is for the 'Democratic West' to persuade some of the larger African countries (perhaps South Africa and Nigeria) that it is in their own best interests to control their population growth, and secondly to also eliminate corruption. How this is done is another question.

It is possible that Asia (excluding China) will be able to manage their economies in the interests of their population. But will they want to or will they be forced to support China, or will they see it as being in their own interests to create stronger relations with the 'Democratic West'?

So there are many questions. Much will depend on how the United States responds to the current situation, and whether it will continue to provide the security blanket as it has done over the past seventy years.