A look at two island nations – one with optimism, one with concern

While my focus quite naturally is on Papua New Guinea, I find it increasingly important we look closely at the smaller island nations of our region given China's focus on almost of all them.

In this contribution I want to look at a close and strategically important neighbour the Solomon Islands, and a more distant nation which has significant people to people links with Australia, Samoa.

Whichever way you asses the position in both countries one overwhelming conclusion just has to be drawn: the strategic position in our region is changing rapidly. And it frankly follows that Australia's overall response is simply not adequate in the environment we face in our immediate and wider region today.

The optimistic case first of all. Until the recent change of government in Samoa this small Pacific Island nation, with close ties to New Zealand, and increasingly closer people links with Australia, was regarded as one of China's strongest allies in the Pacific.

The small nation, population just under 200,000, is heavily indebted to China for a range of infrastructure projects under Belt and Road and related initiatives including the funding of the last Pacific Games. The capacity of such a small nation to meet its debt obligations was an issue in the recent Samoan elections.

The long entrenched government was finally ejected from office weeks after the elections and replaced by a coalition led by Faime Naomi Mata'afa.

One of the first acts of the new government was to cancel a $100 million agreement the former government had with China to build a new port, notwithstanding the fact that the country's major port has been recently upgraded under an aid agreement with Japan.

This is a courageous decision, but it is one which is highly likely to attract retribution from China, possibly calling in loans it has advanced to Samoa in recent yeares.

Australia provides just $41 million in "development assistance" to Samoa. We may have to offer significantly more assistance if and when China responds. We should not hesitate to do so as easing China's influence in Samoa is not just good for the Australian people, it is good for our influence in the region.

There is a very large Samoan community in Australia, a community that will be watching developments closely. If ever there was a case for an immediate "Step Up" in the region then it relates to Samoa today, Australia needs to be engaging with the new government to see what support above our existing budget commitment we can offer.

Our assistance might also include some "soft diplomacy" in the form of support for sport and culture. There is a significant Samoan presence in both rugby league and rugby union in Australia that can be readily built on to enhance the all-important "people to people" relationship.

This is an opportunity to reduce China's all pervasive influence in a small nation in our wider region. It is one we must embrace with urgency.

The second nation I am looking at, the Solomon Islands, is much closer to Australia, and much more strategically important than Samoa. It is located close to Papua New Guinea, and but a short sea journey from the PNG Province of Bougainville which in 2019 voted overwhelmingly to break away from Papua New Guinea.

The Solomon Islands has a population of around 660,000. The recent federal budget allocated $161 million in assistance, econd only to the $600 million we provide Papua New Guinea.

The Solomon Islands, unlike Papua New Guinea, has limited historic connections with Australia. Until it achieved independence in 1978 it was a British colony. The main historic links with Australia, and significantly with the United States, relate to the Second World War where fighting to repel the Japanese advance was intense, and ultimately success.

But Australia has enjoyed sound relations with the country since it achieved independence. This peaked in 2003 when the Howard Government responded positively to a request from The Solomons Government to help put down a dangerous insurgency – lawlessness and ethnic fighting. The country had slipped into a very dangerous position that threatened regional stability.

The Australian-led RAMSI mission ought to be regarded as one of our most successful activities within our region since our neighbours gained independence, principally in the 1970's. It was a costly exercise, but a fine example of regional co-operation for the common good.

The Solomon Islands was aligned strongly with Taiwan after its independence in 1978. That all changed in the second half of 2019 when heavy and effective lobbying by the Peoples Republic of China saw the Manasseh Sogavare Government end its 36 year recognition of Taiwan and commit to a "one China" policy.

What has happened in the less than two years since then is frankly alarming, and it ought to be sending the strongest possible message to the Australian Government!

Since the diplomatic switch, which remains a divisive issue in the Solomon Islands, the rapidly with which China has expanded its influence across the relatively sall economy just must be highlighted.

Since 2019, China has been awarded SI Government contracts to build the Telekom High Performance Centre, the Solomon Islands National University Complex, and the construction of the Munda International Airport, among other smaller projects!

But it does not end there. In 2023 the SI will host the Pacific Games, a major regional sports event. It will be the sporting focus of all the Pacific Island nations.

Earlier this year, the Solomon Islands Government awarded all the contracts for the games infrastructure, including a major national stadium, to two PRC contractors. Local SI contractors were not given as much as a look in.

The exact details of the funding arrangements remain unclear, but based on how China has sought to influence major events such as the Pacific Games in the past, China will pick up some of the costs but there will be a massive cost burden on the SI government and people.

What is now certain is that the next Pacific Games will be yet another "China showcase", giving the PRC massive coverage and impact!

A China-linked company has been given the licence for a gold mine the SI government took friom another company, and in just under two years over half the SI's exports, mainly timber and fisheries, go to China.

The extent of China's presence in the SI is alarming. But what must be of even greater concern to the Australian Government is just how quickly it has been achieved!

For as long as the Sogavare Government is in power, China's influence is going to expand. Our generous development assistance program will make no effective difference.

As I have said, the SI is a small island nation. But it is located very strategically.

Australia needs to do what it can to assist the SI, and one would hope keep a watching brief on China's expanding influence especially when it comes to infrastructure and communications.

That is sadly about the best we can hope for. But what the SI story in recent years simply proves is that if we are to in any way contain China's expanding influence in the region "Step Up" needs to have a rocket under it.

It is just not making an adequate let alone significant difference!