The consequences for Australia of low vaccination rates in PNG and the Pacific

The DEVPOLICY blog contradicts that quite alarmingly. The Crawford School of Business and Public Policy, and the University of PNG, surveyed 281 student of the University of PNG on their attitudes towards vaccination.

Just 6% (six per cent) said they would like to be vaccinated! A further 46% were unsure, while 48% gave a definite "NO".

Is it any wonder that the vaccine process in our closest neighbour is so slow and low?

I will return to the consequences for Australia of this alarming position.

The position in Fiji is of grave concern. And the reality of the position will present special challenges for Australia. The number of cases totals 3,500 out of a population of around 889,000. But the number is escalating – at an average of close to 300 new cases a day.

While vaccination resistance seems to be much lower than in PNG, the escalating number of cases means the tourism industry in Fiji faces a catastrophe. Australia and New Zealand have responded well delivering adequate testing kits and vaccines.

Our other two eastern neighbours The Solomon Islands and Vanuatu have reported only a handful of cases but to our north Timor Leste has had over 9,000 positive tests in a population of 1.3 million. Australia has provided significant assistance. China has been focusing on Timor Leste as well.

It is apparent that the most consequential position for Australia relates to Papua New Guinea – our closest neighbour.

It is complex as well as consequential.

Supplying vaccines – which we have committed to do with up to 1 million initially offered – is simply not going to address the crisis in Papua New Guinea. Supplying more testing equipment is not the answer either. Testing would seem to be actually in decline.

If the Delta version gets to PNG, as is inevitable, a critical position will get even worse if that is possible.

Of the cases in PNG 2,300 have been in Western Province which is just a few KM from the islands of the Torres Strait. In the nation's capital, Port Moresby, there have been over 5,000 cases. Air links between Port Moresby and Australia remain but are heavily restricted.