Losing control of affordable reliable power

For near-100% reliability, any given renewables generation capacity can never exceed about 50% of total capacity inclusive of dispatchable back-up. And, on average, the duplicated fossil-fuel 'dispatchable' capacity backing it up supplies much more than half the power actually delivered to users (maybe 75% or more).

We're learning about this right now, with SA and, more recently, Queensland, as exemplars.

Activists will loudly condemn any use of fossil fuels as 'dispatchable' power. They have fomented strong political pressure, on weak politicians, inducing an investment drought therein.

Let's assume these people want reliable power (do they?). If so, they presumably support 'dispatchable' renewables back-up.

That's manufactured batteries. Ignore emissions costs in their production and disposal, and re-charging efficiency losses.

How much battery storage would be needed? What would it cost?

Both rise exponentially as reliability standards and renewables' share both approach 100%. For example, see an MIT Technology Review analysis for California titled The US$2.5 trillion reason why we can't rely on batteries to clean up the grid (James Temple, July 2018).

For PocketNEM fans, have you noticed how average wholesale power prices are zero or negative more frequently, especially in SA and Qld? Sometimes the entire NEM has zero power prices.

Good news, surely? For activists, yes. This hastens the shut-down of existing fossil fuel power and deters new investment therein.

It reflects fast-rising solar and wind generation capacity. Measured against the NEM's capacity actually to use the power generated, it reflects excess supply of solar and wind generation under sunny or windy conditions.

It also hints at, but does not quantify, another excess supply effect. This is euphemistically called 'curtailed supply'. This is power that is actually generated by solar or wind, but not used. It's wasted.

Solar and wind investors should heed these warnings.

Zero or negative prices for power actually used are unsustainable.

So is power actually produced, but not used at all.