Here comes a very fast train! (Please, save us!)

Interestingly, the business case was based on the assumption that more people would use the service to commute to the city centre for work (sound familiar Prime Minister Albanese?) Premier Jackie Tradd said at the time “A project like this, that will see 600 new trains go from the Redcliffe Peninsula to the city CBD every week, is a fantastic initiative for workers in this area.” In actual fact, rather than some 70% of users being commuters to the city centre as expected, estimates are that only around 30% are for this type of commute: the balance are local or inter suburban journeys. As always, the idea that people live in outer areas because they have no choice and do so for affordability only, and endure long commutes to city centre jobs, was a furphy.

(As an aside, when opening the Moreton Bay line, then PM Malcolm Turnbull said: “Realistically, someone could jump on a train here in Kippa Ring and use our public transport network to visit the beaches of Gold Coast or Sunshine Coast.”  Sure Malcolm, carting all your eskies and cabanas on the train, changing at central, and being dumped at Robina sounds like a fab way to enjoy the beach. Oh, did I mention this is the same PM who gave us Snowy Hydro 2.0?)

As for Cross River Rail, the original promise of an extra 52,000 passengers in the morning peak is looking shaky, as is the projected 95,000 by 2036. The current morning peak accounts for around 35,000 to 45,000 passengers – well below the original business case assumptions and this notwithstanding the advent of 50 cent fares. The extra stations will be great for the convenience of those working near them, or for occasional major events, but it is hard to see any of the original passenger projections getting remotely close to being realised.

Maybe our Prime Minister should spend some time talking to California Governor (and US Democratic Presidential aspirant) Gavin Newsom about his proposed Los Angeles to San Francisco high speed rail? First proposed in 2008 at a cost of $33 billion, and serving a combined population of 30 million people, latest estimates put the total cost at above $100 billion and maybe as much as $200 billion. It was originally said to be completed by around 2020, but it’s now looking more like 2040. So a final cost that is four times the original estimate and two decades late. To trim costs, recent reports suggest the twin track rail connection will now become a single track – dramatically cutting speeds and network efficiency. The fast train has been slowed down, even before it started.

With a couple of exceptions, there’s something in common with all these: they are championed by politicians, not demanded by the people. They involve obscene amounts of taxpayer dollars and are run by government agencies, with consistently dismal delivery records and almost none come close to meeting their original assumptions.

With an economy looking distinctly sick at present, and with the Federal budget blowing out due to unrestrained spending (and increasing taxes to pay for it) is this really the time to indulge a Prime Minister’s whim which even the most generous supporter must surely question? Unless they’re getting paid to support it that is.

Postscript: no sooner had I finished the research and write up for this, that we got news the Queensland section of the proposed Inland Rail freight project has been canned. According to The Courier Mail: “More than 30 years after the multi-state freight route was first proposed and with more than $2bn already spent, Labor says the cost for the full 1600km project had blown out to more than $45bn and would take at least another decade… As of 2023 more than $2bn had already been spent but an independent review warned the project’s costs had grown from $16.4bn to $31.4bn in just two years… A new analysis concluded it would cost in excess of $45bn and take until 2037 to deliver in full.”

The one thing rail is good at in this country is freight. Massive loads, moving slowly, over great distances. So the rail freight project that’s got validity and that's actually started is dumped but the Prime Minister’s $90 billion thought bubble is to proceed.

I promise, I’m not making this up.