Here comes a very fast train! (Please, save us!)

Proponents of Prime Minister Albanese’s proposed $90 billion “very fast train” between Sydney and Newcastle must either be extraordinarily optimistic or extraordinarily well paid to promote it. It is hard to believe that anyone could honestly support such a proposal without financial incentive.

Too harsh? Everyone is entitled to an opinion, of course. But some opinions—for example, the belief that the earth is flat—are also open to ridicule. Entitlement does not guarantee credibility.

That this utterly risible proposal has been allocated $60 million for a business case plus a further $600 million for detailed planning before a cent is spent on actually trying to build it, is an insult to the democratic process. No one voted for what is shaping up as Australia’s most expensive infrastructure project - ever. If you thought the blowout of Snowy Hydro 2.0 from the $2 billion first announced in 2017 to the now $40 billion and 7 years late outlook was bad, this will be worse. It’s a vanity project of the Prime Minister of the highest order. “I will not be the Prime Minister when high-speed rail is finished but I am determined to be the Prime Minister who starts it,” he said earlier this year. Is that a promise or a threat?

Here are some details of what’s proposed: a 190 kilometre new fast rail connection from Newcastle to Sydney which will include 115 kilometres of tunnels and 38 kilometres of bridges and viaducts. Let that sink in. The primary rationale seems to be to alleviate the housing pressures of Sydney by opening up 160,000 new homes in the Newcastle area, so that people can live more cheaply there and commute to work in Sydney. Somehow, this is supposed to create a massive economic uplift – which it will, chiefly for the consultants who will enjoy riding this gravy train to its inevitable cost and time over runs.

The train promises to cut the train trip time from Newcastle to Sydney from around 2.5 hours to one hour. Driving the same currently takes 2.5 hours. The current regular air service by the regional airline operator takes 40 minutes – and this is evidently a commercial route (that is, not subsidised).

Why turn Newcastle into a dormitory for Sydney city centre office workers at a cost of $90billion (before catastrophic cost blow outs) when you could instead create more jobs in Newcastle, for much less? Imagine a Newcastle economy offering zero payroll taxes (estimated by Ai at $500m pa) and no land taxes ($350m pa). Do you think that might attract a few more jobs to the region? In fact, for $90billion, imagine the value of economic opportunity you could unlock in countless regional cities and towns across the country?

Proponents will point to the Eurostar connection between London and Paris as proof that fast rail can work. Yes, but each of those cities are metro regions of around 14 million people – which is a total market served of near 30 million - more than the entire population of Australia today. Or proponents might point to Japan’s Shinkansen – which services a combined population of 90 million people across several key cities. Or they might tout the Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail corridor – which serves a combined 150 to 200 million people. None are relevant to Australia’s population – now or projected – or our geography, and certainly not our economy.

You would be forgiven that the Prime Minister at some stage picked up the script for the episode of ABC TV’s “Utopia” which satirised the very fast train, but he mistakenly thought it a solid sounding idea. You just can’t make this stuff up. Here’s a Youtube link to refresh your memory:

Instead of vainly grasping at examples that lack relevancy to shore up support, how about we think about some more local experiences? Melbourne’s proposed suburban rail loop was first announced in 2018 as a $50 billion project. It is now estimated by the Victorian Government’s Parliamentary Budget Office to cost a likely $216 billion in construction costs plus 50 years of operating deficits (losses) – for the first two stages.

Closer to home, Brisbane’s Cross River Fail was promised over and over again to be a $5.4 billion project that would revolutionise the network across SEQ. Passenger services were supposed to start this year. Latest cost estimates are a total program cost of $19 billion and a completion date of 2029.

Breaking the mould was Brisbane’s Moreton Bay Rail line – promised by eager-to-be-elected politicians for 130 years – and which was finally opened only a few months behind schedule (or 130 years late depending on how you look at it) in 2016 and only 15% over budget. But when first proposed, it was promised to carry around 10,000 passengers per day rising to 18,000 by 2031. Early usage after opening in 2016 was far lower, at roughly 5,000 daily passengers – and the number hasn’t changed over time much despite the advent of 50c fares and substantial population growth.