Labor set to win next election

The worsening oil situation and the increasing likelihood of an international recession might bring forward such a prospect. Only a major recession or other calamity in Australia (like critical fuel shortages) is capable of shocking some naive and gullible voters back into the Coalition camp.

Labor is unlikely to do anything of substance to alleviate the current liquid energy crisis, impending shortages of gas, and threats to the electricity grid, because the party is wedded to wind and solar. For ideological reasons it is also unlikely to deal with Australia's rising debt levels, while its industrial relations policies bode ill for the economy, particularly sectors like mining and construction.

One wonders what further "progressive" policies Labor would introduce, if granted another term, and how bad the economy could get. My suspicion is that we might see further new taxes (maybe on wealth), continued bracket creep, a further worsening of debts, and a high-cost and unstable energy sector that will take decades to turn around. All this could cause an eventual major plunge in Labor's popularity, and its electoral losses could then (timing perhaps around the end of 2029) easily be greater than the losses suffered by the Whitlam government in 1975.