The Bondi Massacre: bungling all round with gun owners (and taxpayers) now set up as scapegoats

Three things stand out in the aftermath of the Bondi massacre. The first is the extent of unfounded fearmongering about licenced firearms. The second has been the approval of yet more firearms restrictions, that are disruptive, very costly and won't work. Finally, there is the ineptitude of almost all key players in the massacre.

Popular perceptions about violent crime in Australia simply do not accord with the real world. Popular belief (promoted by the media and anti-gun activists) attributes a much higher homicide rate to gun violence than is the reality, and the public regularly gets scared witless by TV footage demonstrating certain types of guns being fired rapidly. Many politicians promoting gun control have rarely, if ever, fired a gun.

For the period July 2023 to June 2024, Australia recorded only 31 gun-related murders, a rate of 0.09 per 100,000 people (over 50 times lower than the US). It is further known that only about 9 per cent of firearm-related homicides in Australia involved licensed gun owners. The risk of being murdered by a licensed gun in Australia is therefore insignificant.

In Australia, knives are used far more frequently than guns in homicide incidents. In 2023-24, a knife or other sharp instrument was used in 34 per cent of homicides, while firearms were used in 12 per cent. Since 1990, homicides by firearm have reduced to less than half, yet the Australian population has increased by about 65 per cent and firearms ownership (since 1996) is estimated to have roughly doubled. Authorities should be targeting knife crime and unlicensed guns, not licensed law-abiding gun owners.

No player emerges looking good following the Bondi massacre. ASIO (less than two weeks before) did predict that a terrorist attack from "lone actors or small cells" was "probable". Despite this assessment being passed on to thousands of federal and state officials, no action was taken. ASIO itself, as well as the NSW Police, previously investigated but failed to properly identify the threat posed by the younger gunman.

On the night of the massacre, only three mostly inexperienced general duties police, armed just with pistols, were on duty to protect the crowd of about 1000. They did as well as could be expected under the circumstances. Contrast this with the memorial service exactly a week later, when Bondi was guarded by a heavy police presence, including snipers on rooftops and police boats in the water. Similarly, police armed with rifles attended the test at the SCG. This is all typical of bureaucratic "backside protection". Initial inaction commonly is followed up by futile over-kill (excuse the pun) well after the main need has passed.

Mobile phone footage of the Bondi shootings (with accompanying sound) indicates that 103 gunshots were recorded in the audio in less than six minutes. Some were police fire, so that the two killers fired (at most) a total of about 90 rounds. This equates to about 7 or 8 rounds per minute each (hardly a rapid rate of fire). In total the two gunmen killed 15 people and (partly reflecting the use of shotguns) also wounded about 40. It is likely that the size of the crowd meant that a missed target often resulted in an adjacent person being impacted instead.

Without wishing to be gruesome, the pair were relatively ineffective compared with the toll at Port Arthur, where a single gunman killed 35 people, though they were roughly on a par with the Hoddle St, Queen St, and Strathfield killers. Remember, however, that Bondi had been far more crowded than the other locations.

In 2024 a single person armed with just a knife managed to stab 6 people to death and wound another 12 at Westfield Bondi Junction. Of course, vehicles have also been used even more effectively as weapons. The 2016 Bastille Day massacre in the French city of Nice saw 86 people killed after a man drove a truck into crowds.

The media reported that the Akrams meticulously planned the massacre over months, and practiced on a NSW farm. Given the supposed degree of planning, they would have to be regarded as incompetent. Police allege that the two men started their attack by throwing three pipe bombs and a tennis ball bomb into the crowd. They all failed to detonate. The Akrams then started shooting into the crowd.

The video suggests that the Akrams (even though the father was a gun club member) were mainly self-trained and not good shots. Anyone familiar with shooting a rifle would know that accuracy is greatly increased if the shooter can rest his gun and his body against a solid object. Shooting from a prone or sitting position using a sling to hold the rifle tight is also far more effective than standing and shooting unsupported. Instead, there was little attempt by the Akrams to use the adjacent wall to facilitate a steady aim. Similarly, the shooters' footwork was rushed and unsteady, and totally unsuited to accurate shooting.

The firearms used during the attack are believed to be the Beretta BRX1 .308 straight-pull rifle and the Stoeger M3000 M3K 12-gauge straight-pull shotgun (made by a Beretta subsidiary in Turkey). The former is quite expensive and retails from $2595 to $3199. The standard magazine capacity for the Beretta BRX1 in .308 Winchester in Australia is 5 rounds. A 10-round magazine is also available for purchase for $99. The Stoeger shotguns (regarded as relative "cheapies") can be bought new for $759 to $900 and come with a 7 + 1 round capacity in a tube magazine.