The geopolitical future of Ukraine – four possible scenarios for 2025–2026

In this scenario, NATO would face its most severe test since the Cold War. While direct military intervention would remain unlikely, the alliance might enforce no-fly zones or deploy additional missile defence systems in Eastern Europe. The economic fallout would be severe, with global energy markets destabilised and supply chains disrupted.

Ultimately, this path leads to a prolonged, high-intensity conflict with no clear resolution. Russia's international isolation would deepen, but Ukraine would suffer immense devastation, potentially requiring decades of reconstruction.

Scenario 4: Diplomatic settlement – an unlikely but possible peace

The least probable scenario - yet one that cannot be entirely dismissed - is a negotiated settlement brokered by external powers. By 2026, if both sides recognize that further fighting is futile, a ceasefire agreement might emerge under international pressure.

China, seeking to position itself as a global mediator, could attempt to broker a deal, leveraging its economic ties with Russia while offering reconstruction aid to Ukraine. Alternatively, Turkey or the United Nations might revive diplomatic efforts, possibly around a renewed grain deal or prisoner exchanges.

The terms of any settlement would be contentious. Ukraine would likely resist any agreement that legitimises Russian territorial gains, while Moscow would demand guarantees against NATO expansion. A potential compromise could involve Ukraine renouncing NATO membership in exchange for EU security assurances, while Crimea remains under de facto Russian control with a symbolic pledge of future negotiations.

However, such a peace would be fragile. Hardliners in both countries would reject concessions, and the underlying grievances driving the conflict would remain unresolved. Without a decisive military outcome, the risk of renewed fighting would loom large, making this scenario the most unstable of the four.

The geopolitical future of Ukraine in 2025–2026 will be shaped by a complex interplay of military, economic, and diplomatic factors. The most likely outcome remains a protracted stalemate, with neither side able to impose its will decisively. However, the potential for sudden shifts - whether through Ukrainian breakthroughs, Russian escalation, or unexpected diplomacy - means that policymakers must prepare for multiple contingencies.

For Ukraine, the key to success lies in maintaining Western support while degrading Russia's military capacity. For Russia, the war's long-term costs may eventually force a reckoning, whether through internal upheaval or strategic retreat. And for the broader international community, the conflict serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of unchecked aggression - and the difficult choices required to uphold a rules-based global order.

The next two years will determine whether this war ends in a frozen conflict, a decisive victory, or an unthinkable escalation. Whatever the outcome, its repercussions will be felt far beyond Ukraine's borders, reshaping the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.