Post-Assad power struggle: a new battle awaits Syria

The watershed moment in Syria with the ousting of Bashar al-Assad has triggered a complex and high-stakes scramble for influence in a region already rife with instability. As Syrian rebel forces have seized Damascus, toppling over more than 50 years of Assad family's autocratic rule, the implications for regional geopolitics are profound.

A newly fragmented Syria presents both opportunity and peril, as regional powers, each with divergent interests, race to reshape the country's future.

Regional rivalries: a battle for influence

In this rapidly evolving power vacuum, countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Turkey and Qatar will very soon start attempting to assert their influence. Each of these states has its own vision for Syria's future, guided by broader regional ambitions and ideological leanings.

For Egypt and the Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the overriding concern will be preventing the rise of Islamist groups they deem a threat to their political systems. Specifically, the Muslim Brotherhood, long seen as an existential threat by these states, will be at the center of their strategy.

Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, along with the UAE, have been vocal in their opposition to any group affiliated with the Brotherhood or those espousing similar ideological leanings. In the post-Assad landscape, they will likely back rebel factions that can check the influence of these Islamist groups, ensuring that Syria's future more aligned with their own authoritarian models, which are hostile to political Islam.

On the other hand, Turkey and Qatar, which have long supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates, will work to ensure that Syria's political future accommodates groups sympathetic to their cause.

Turkey, already heavily involved in the Syrian conflict and keen on countering Kurdish influence, will push for a post-Assad Syria that is friendly to its interests. Ankara's backing of rebel factions with Islamist leanings will be key in shaping the future trajectory of Syrian politics, which may involve an uneasy coalition of Islamist and nationalist forces that align more closely with Turkey's regional goals.

Israel's seicurity interests: covert operations and Syria's fragmentation

Israel, having spent years trying to weaken the Assad regime and its allies, especially Iran and Hezbollah, will welcome the collapse of Assad's rule. Israel will likely continue its covert operations in Syria, targeting any remaining Iranian and Hezbollah assets as well as any rebel factions it perceives as a threat.

Israel has already signaled its intention to maintain a visible and strategic military presence in the region, especially along the Golan Heights and in areas near the Syrian border. Israel's goal will be to ensure that no single force, whether a rebel faction or a pro-Iranian proxy, can dominate Syria and pose a direct threat to Israeli security.

Accordingly, Israel's primary goal after the fall of Assad would be the ongoing fragmentation of the country. A divided Syria, with competing rebel factions and no strong central government, serves Israel's strategic interests, as it avoids the consolidation of a unified and hostile neighbor on its border.

US Pursuit of democracy in Syria

The U.S.'s objectives in Syria revolve around maintaining a foothold in the region and advancing its ideological goals. In particular, Washington has consistently supported Kurdish-led forces, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it sees as a counterbalance to ISISand other adversarial forces. These groups are also positioned as important U.S. allies in the broader effort to promote liberal values and establish democracy in Syria and the Middle East.