Brexit: vindication for de Gaulle but maybe a pyrrhic victory for British nationalism?

Those favouring Remain maintained a lead in UK opinion polls, except around 2000, when Prime Minister Tony Blair aimed for closer EU integration, including adoption of the Euro currency.  Later, around 2011, immigration into the United Kingdom became a growing issue for voters.  As late as December 2015 there was still, according to ComRes surveys, a clear majority in favour of remaining.

When Brexit was finally approved by the European Parliament, many EU countries expressed regret.  President Macron posted a letter addressed to his “dear British friends”, saying that although this was a “democratic choice France has always respected”, he felt “deeply sad at this departure”.  Many other European leaders expressed regret that Britain was leaving.  Former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt, predicted that the UK would rejoin one day.  Members of the European Parliament even stood holding hands to sing Auld Lang Syne as a goodbye gesture to the United Kingdom. 

Brexit leader, Nigel Farage had a "good riddance" attitude.  In his final speech he said: “Once we’ve left, we are never coming back and the rest frankly is detail.”  His farewell speech was cut-off, when he started to wave a miniature British flag, contravening rules on displaying national flags in the debating chamber.  Fellow Brexit Party MEPs cheered “hip-hip hooray” before marching out together.

So what are the likely implications of Brexit?

Some trade outcomes appear obvious.  There are likely trade benefits for Australia, New Zealand, and other major food exporters, assuming they can negotiate better access to the UK for their agricultural exports.  Before Britain joined the EU, Australia and New Zealand were major supplies of products such as meat, dairy, fresh and dried fruits etc  Some of these exports are likely to be re-invigorated following a likely bilateral trade agreement, though new competitors from other parts of the world have emerged since the 1970s.

It is likely that there will be some diversion of UK trade from EU to non-EU countries, that had until now been disadvantaged by EU trade rules.  Losers will include EU farmers, and the fate of British farmers will depend on whether the UK will make up for lost EU subsidies and market supports.  Brexit will be a particular challenge for the Republic of Ireland because the UK historically was its biggest trading partner and the main destination of its farm exports.

The economic implications for the broader UK are uncertain at present.  British exports to the EU (including services) may be adversely affected but the extent will depend on whatever post-Brexit trade deal is negotiated with the EU.

Within the UK and its overseas territories, Brexit poses a range of challenges.

Gibraltar will likely be the biggest loser.  EU membership definitely reduced tensions between the UK and Spain over the Rock.  Relations between Gibraltar and the neighbouring Spanish region of the Campo de Gibraltar became a textbook example of two territories using EU rules to create mutual prosperity.  One in four jobs in the Spanish region is supported by Gibraltar, while more than 14,000 people cross the border every day to work in the British territory.  Tourism (Gibraltar gets over 10 million visitors annually) is also facilitated by an open land border.  How relations between Spain and the UK will play out post Brexit is anyone's guess, but Brexit is an unambiguous negative.

The biggest risk for the UK is that Brexit will provide further oxygen for Scottish independence because most Scots voted to remain.  In the 2019 election the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) made big gains.  The party won 81% of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons.  Leader, Nicola Sturgeon stated that  the country had sent a "clear message" on a second independence referendum.  Boris Johnson is likely to seek to put off such a referendum.

Brexit also poses challenges for Northern Ireland (NI).  A major issue is the possibility that a hard border with the Republic could re-emerge at some future time, and lead to social and political unrest, placing pressure on the Peace Agreement.  The Brexit withdrawal agreement commits the UK to maintaining an open border in Ireland, so that the de facto frontier in some ways may become the Irish Sea.  All this could rekindle historic tensions.  A further complication is smuggling, that used to take place across the Irish border (often by organised criminals linked to paramilitaries) in response to different tax and pricing regimes.  Such smuggling could re-emerge in the absence of a hard border.

An independent Scotland would have implications for NI, in that NI is a lot closer geographically to Scotland than it is to England.  Scottish independence would result in a very odd rump UK.  [Scotland and the NI coast are just 19 kilometres apart, and the migration of people between the two regions has been going on for centuries.  The distance between Scotland and England is over 90 kilometres and cultural connections weaker.]

I suspect that most Brits outside Scotland place a more value on maintaining the Union with Scotland than on leaving the EU (Brexit).  Ironically Brexit could be the final straw that pushes the Scots down the independence path.  A breakup of the union is exactly what most British nationalists don't want.