The Windsor knot

Add to this the image of Turnbull not actually looking like a bloke who understands the bush and Barnaby's problems compound.

Then, there is the ALP. They will run dead to ensure that Windsor finishes ahead of them so he gets all their preferences.

It all looks bad for Barnaby, but only a fool will write him off, especially as the Coalition will raise a lot of city money for his campaign so he is in a position to outspend Tony mightily. This is a huge factor in Barnaby's favour.

Given the state of the polls nationally, it is not without possibility that Windsor, and other Independents, will hold the balance of power. My guess is that in this situation he will not sign an agreement of support with either side.

This is actually a great election for Independents in the House of Representatives. They will all get the anti establishment vote in huge quantities. McGowan will easily beat Mirabella in Indi and Xenophon's team will pick up at least two seats in South Australia, including the seat of Christopher Pyne. Dick Smith is a certainty to beat Bronwyn if she is endorsed.

These are heady game changing days.

And the cornerstone of the change is the tightening of the Windsor knot in New England. His victory will shake the establishment to the very core.