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Will Ukraine commit economic suicide?

By James Stafford - posted Thursday, 9 October 2014


JKX said the rise would cost it an estimated $10 million, with the cost to be covered by slashing spending in the country by 25 percent.

With a gas tax on private producers, Russia wins. "It's the economy, not the Russian army, that has brought Ukraine close to the brink," notes Business Insider's Walter Kurtz.

Beyond this, there will be reverberations across sectors, as the gas tax scares away foreign direct investment in general.

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Meanwhile, not just international donors have lost confidence in Kiev's economic policy -- domestic depositors have, as well, and are rushing to convert their holdings into dollars. The National Bank has been forced to print more money, further exacerbating the devaluation, and the government might find itself soon enough bailing out the banks with budget money it doesn't have.

As elections approach, Western skepticism over Ukraine is growing, with the general consensus that Ukraine will not pursue any real reforms, nor will it be able to accept any aid without seeing it disappear through the cracks of corruption.

President Poroshenko's stated goals to rebuild the economy and make it attractive to outside investors appear overly ambitious at best, and utterly impossible at worst--particularly if the one lifeline to energy independence through private gas production is definitively severed with the October budget vote.

Said Bensh, "Attracting $40 billion in foreign investment and joining the European Union by 2020 is a pipe dream for a country that is holding current investors hostage and making the atmosphere prohibitive for any new investors."

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First published on OilPrice.com.



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About the Author

James Stafford is the publisher of OilPrice.com.

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