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What the loss of Crimea means for Ukrainian energy

By James Stafford - posted Monday, 24 March 2014


JS: Should Turkey be taking notes here on what is happening in Ukraine with Russia?

RB: Ultimately, I think Turkey has to look at Ukraine and realize that it is in the same strategic position with regard to energy independence. Turkey should be using Ukraine as a very real example as to why they need energy independence. They should focus on crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan, development of Turkish shale assets, a complete break-up of the state-run oil company, TPAO, and transshipment of LNG through the Bosphorus.

JS: You've talked before about the possibility of Russia's actions actually facilitating Ukraine's move toward signing a trade agreement with the European Union. Is there any room for more optimism over this, and possibly other internal political matters for Ukraine?

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RB: Yes. Russia's actions have given Ukraine significant resolve to sign the trade agreement with Europe. Prior to Russia's occupation of Ukraine, there were a lot of Ukrainians in government and business who were willing to sit on the fence, or even gear themselves more toward Russia, with whom they felt more comfortable, especially in eastern Ukraine. However, the violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, the threat of recession, and the complete halt of work being done in the country has pushed even the most cynical businessperson or politician toward signing an association agreement.

I don't meet many Ukrainians who think Ukraine should be part of NATO, but that could change with the annexation of Crimea. The Maidan protest movement was effective in giving the public a voice toward removing what they believed to be a corrupt and unjust government. What's happening now is that the Russian move is further escalating Ukrainian patriotism. Indeed, it is creating fervent Ukrainian patriotism. I've been here for some 15 years, and I've never seen anything like it. I've never seen the country so united before. For me, this seems to be the birth of a new Ukrainian nation at this point.

I've never seen so many 22-40-year-olds completely charged and excited about their country and wanting to be a part of their government. I'm an American—we're extremely patriotic. Canadians are patriotic, Russians are patriotic. Ukrainians weren't, and I've never seen Ukrainian patriotism higher than right now. And as a visitor to this country I find it quite heartening.

JS: How would you measure the Obama administration's response to this crisis?

RB: Well, I'm not a politician. I'm a businessman on the ground. For 14 years, I've been very critical of how the US has handled relations with Ukraine. We've had good ambassadors here, some better than others. While I think the US was slow to respond to the Maidan protest movement, and at points in time did not approve of how the administration was handling the situation in Maidan, I am exceedingly proud of this current US ambassador, Geoffrey Pyatt, and how he is handling himself. Even the Ukrainians on both sides of the fence respect him, which is really hard.

I believe that Obama has been quite measured in his response; maybe not the way I would have responded, but I am very proud of how my country is dealing with the situation. I think we all have to recognize that Putin is a very unique world leader. Even other world leaders, such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are having a hard time discussing this current situation with Putin. I respect that.

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This article was first published on OilPrice.com.



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About the Author

James Stafford is the publisher of OilPrice.com.

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