Awareness of the global environmental crisis is growing, but understanding of what the changes mean remains sketchy. A consideration of possible scenarios can help to develop such understanding and give us an idea of what we need to do to avoid the worst possibilities.
Scenarios are a technique used by futurists as a conceptual tool to better understand the ramifications of particular trends. They are not predictions as such, simply attempts to posit how various factors might interact to produce certain results. In this piece, the scenario technique is used to stimulate thought about what the future may be like and what we can do about it. These scenarios present the world situation as it might be in five to ten years' time.
Scenario 1: back to business as usual
In this scenario, with further evidence the models are found to be faulty and global warming is not apparent, or else natural systems kick in to negate dramatic change.
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Heaving a huge sigh of relief, the world goes back to business as it was during the heyday of globalisation in the 1990s. Thanks to investment in new energy sources and energy conservation brought about by concern about global warming, there is a new surge of productivity gains. Combined with the fine tuning generated by new information technology, a global economic boom results. Structural problems between the US, Europe, China and India are minimised as everyone benefits from strong economic growth. The looming problem of Peak Oil is ameliorated thanks to the new technologies coming on line.
Scenario 2: global warming as just another factor to manage
The research evidence shows global warming is occurring, but at the lower end of the predictive models. There is some sea level rise and weather becomes more unpredictable and extreme.
Investment and tax policies are introduced to direct money and effort into new energy sources and a carbon-trading system evolves.
Two basic models of response emerge: one based on Kyoto centred on government action; the other (favoured by the US) centred on carbon markets. Taking account of global warming becomes just another factor in the economy, the US and China using the issue to gain advantage in their ongoing rivalry, the developing nations to gain accessions from the developed nations.
The shift of populations as sea levels rise and weather alters becomes another part of the migration changes already under way. Casualties and refugees due to rising sea levels and storms begin to rise in number but are dealt with by a combination of government, NGO and corporate effort. The material problem gets worse, but global organisations are learning how to manage a sustained emergency.
Scenario 3: the world organises to face the crisis
Global warming is recognised as a real problem, with the Gulf Stream under threat and sea levels rising several metres due to ice sheets melting. The occurrence of major storms increases, while deforestation, species decline and disease are also major problems.
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Pushed by popular concern, global agencies to manage control of energy usage are put in place to ensure the economic pain of change is spread evenly. Global emergency agencies are established to shift resources around the globe in response to emergencies.
The “Gorist” Democrat Government in the US embraces global management as a New Deal for mankind, taking the lead. A new corporate sector emerges focused on emergency management and new technology, especially new energy and information technology systems.
The negative impact of global warming is partially offset by the economic gains of new technology and the rapid economic development of previously excluded populations in Asia and Africa. Population shifts are managed co-operatively and new efforts to control population growth undertaken.
Scenario 4: environmental crisis brings global meltdown
Global warming is a real problem, the Gulf Stream becoming erratic causing dramatic weather fluctuations in Europe, the ice sheets melting fast and causing sea levels to rise several metres. Strong storms ravage cities and crop failure becomes common. The global economy is in crisis, there is extended starvation in various regions as food supplies are disrupted by environmental and economic factors.
Due to a combination of corporate publicity and the Republican Government, the US refuses to participate in global management of the problem. Instead, the US further mobilises its armed forces in an attempt to control remaining oil supplies and exclude refugees.
China responds by stepping up its armament program, growing closer to Russia, while the rest of the world falls into disarray. International co-operation erodes and a period of general rearmament ensues. The US attempts to build a rich world alliance (the US, Western Europe, Japan, Australia) as a Chinese/Russian/Indian bloc takes shape.
Proxy wars are fought in various places, with confusion over whether WMDs have been used. To reassert control, the US uses a tactical nuclear device, to which the North Asian bloc replies. The world slides into uncontrolled warfare as global warming heats up. Humans begin to die in their millions.
Who knows what will actually happen - the only certainty is that big changes lie ahead. As things stand, the evidence suggests that global warming is occurring, the causes are largely social and the growing awareness of “tipping points” is causing even more concern. If we are lucky, the models will turn out to be pessimistic, or natural processes will act to re-balance nature in our favour. If not, and global warming is under way and unstoppable, we face hard choices.
Of course things can change very quickly. A US President Gore might energise that great nation to lead beneficial change in the way it did during World War II; a new generation Murdoch might use his power over mass communications to generate genuine public pressure for change; a catastrophe might transform the growing fear into a demand for decisive action.
Whatever happens, we’re all of us along for the ride, even if it is our children and grandchildren who’ll be the ones to reach the final destination.