Choosing a battleground where the country loses

Anthony Albanese says he will fight the 2028 election on no recession and low average unemployment. The data, and the Reserve Bank's own forecasts, are already moving against him.

If the mark of success for this Prime Minister is not having a recession before the next election, then he has confused not failing with succeeding.

Although maybe this benchmark is justified based on his tragic economic performance since 2022.

Asked on Monday why only one in five Australians trust his government, Anthony Albanese said he would go to the 2028 election on two economic boasts: not one negative quarter of economic growth, and the lowest average unemployment rate of any government in 50 years.

Be suspicious of a Prime Minister who conveniently cherry picks the figures to suit his narrative.

The reason why the economy has avoided a negative quarter is only because there are more of us. GDP is about 7 per cent bigger than it was four years ago, but this hides the more telling indicator of GDP per person which is lower. It fell for six quarters in a row and has risen in just five of the 16 since the election.

Per person, the recession he says he avoided has already happened.

Likewise with unemployment, an average is what you quote when the trend has turned against you. He inherited an unemployment rate of 3.9 per cent, the lowest in 48 years and turned it into 4.7 per cent, with 71,000 more people out of work in the past six months alone.

Perhaps he should justify his measure of success to the extra 222,000 Australians who are out of work since he was elected.

The Reserve Bank's forecasts, published last week, have unemployment rising every six months to 5.1 per cent by the end of 2028.

The same forecasts have growth slowing to 1.3 per cent next year causing HSBC's chief economist, Paul Bloxham to put the chance of a recession next year at 50:50.

And this is the scorecard before any recession arrives. Real wages are 1.4 per cent lower than when Labor took office against prices that are 18 per cent higher.