Climate alarmists ‘crying wolf’ are finally losing credibility

The “Boy Who Cried Wolf" is a famous Aesop fable about a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks villagers into believing a wolf is attacking his flock.  The phrase "to cry wolf", meaning "to give false alarm" refers to providing dishonest warnings, which result in subsequent alarms (even if true) being disbelieved.

The wolf-crying label now well-and-truly applies to the claims of climate alarmists.

The big electoral swing in Australia to One Nation and away from the Coalition and Labor in my opinion is reflective (inter alia) of growing skepticism about claims of impending climate catastrophe.  It also reflects increasing fear that alleged “solutions” are sending the nation broke.  The Liberals (in particular) are caught up in all this because so many of their federal parliamentarians and State members are “moderates”, who oppose any step back from current climate policies.  This had presented a dilemma for conservative voters, who want a party that represents their values.

The most recent element of the “wolf-crying” alarm in this country is the (now-disbelieved) El Niño-related scare about devastating drought predicted for 2026.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) last Autumn officially declared El Niño to be active.  The ABC further trumpeted :

El Niño declared by BoM and it could become the strongest on record”.  The BoM long-term outlook from 10 September 2026 confirmed “a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with peak warming expected around November–December 2026, before persisting into Autumn 2027.  Below-average rainfall was projected for parts of south-eastern Australia, including southern New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania.  

The BoM and the woke media were most strident in promoting the prospect of drought every time a dry spell ran for a few weeks.  They were noticeably most vocal in late-May/early-June, and again in September 2026.

Guess what?  November 2026 has now arrived, no widespread drought, and the BoM and the rest of the woke brigade have gone quiet again!

The actual weather turned out to be the exact opposite to that being promoted by the climate alarmists, though the BoM had expressed some caveats to cover itself.  In much of the South-East there was a big seasonal break last June and again recently in October.  The result has been one of the best seasons in living memory (despite dry pockets in a few places like the Monaro and the NSW Far South Coast).  In the past week or two there have additionally been very good rains in much of Queensland and Northern NSW.

In short, any farmer, who took the forecasts of drought seriously, lost a lot of money.  Most areas predicted for drought are currently looking forward to bumper crops, near record stock prices, and lots of feed.  A pregnant cow in store condition, that sold last May for little over $1000, could now easily be worth over $3000 with a calf at foot.  Those, who sold their cattle too early, literally lost a fortune. 

Long-term weather forecasts now have near-zero credibility in the farming community.  Farmers still remember the severe drought from 2017 to early 2020, whose onset and later breaking was never forecast.  They also remember the false prophesy of Professor Tim Flannery that “even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems.”

A further prominent Australian example of “wolf-crying” relates to the Great Barrier Reef.