The strategic role of small-state diplomacy

At a time when international diplomacy is under extraordinary pressure, the proposed Muscat Process – advanced by a Group of Friends of the Process – deserves strong and sustained support. Its value lies not only in the possibility of achieving a particular political agreement, but in preserving channels of dialogue between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, Iran and Iraq throughout the entire crisis cycle-from prevention and early warning, through escalation and crisis, to de-escalation, stabilization and, ultimately, political settlement.

The crisis cycle should also be understood as more than a political or security phenomenon. Every major geopolitical crisis generates an economic crisis cycle. Rising tensions increase uncertainty; uncertainty affects investment, trade and financial markets; disruption to energy supplies, transport and supply chains increases costs; and economic pressure can in turn reinforce political instability. Security and economic risks therefore become mutually reinforcing.

In an international system increasingly shaped by competition among major powers, smaller states are sometimes perceived primarily as recipients of international decisions. The Muscat Process demonstrates the opposite: a smaller state can be an important provider of international security and diplomatic stability.

Oman is a particularly compelling example. Its influence does not derive from military power or economic size comparable to the largest global actors. It derives from trust, credibility, consistency and the ability to maintain relationships across political divides. Oman has demonstrated that diplomatic influence can be built through reliability rather than coercion.

This is a significant lesson for the wider international system. Smaller states can sometimes create diplomatic space that larger powers cannot. Major powers often carry strategic interests, alliances and political expectations that can make direct mediation difficult. A smaller, credible and relatively trusted state may have greater freedom to communicate with all sides without appearing to seek dominance.

The big eats the small, but the fast resists the slow

Smaller states can contribute at every stage of crisis:

At the prevention stage, they can provide early-warning channels and maintain contacts that larger powers may find politically difficult to sustain.

During escalation, they can provide discreet communication and help parties explore possible compromises without requiring immediate public concessions.

At the crisis stage, they can serve as trusted intermediaries capable of transmitting urgent messages and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

During de-escalation, they can facilitate confidence-building and help transform temporary pauses into more durable arrangements.

And during stabilization and recovery, they can support the restoration of economic connectivity, trade, investment and regional cooperation.