For the right the next election is about renovation

Pauline Hanson is improving her position and making it less likely that this manifestation of One Nation will splutter out. At the same time, it is almost impossible for One Nation to translate its superior first preference vote over the Liberals, and probably Labor, into a governing position.

That’s one of the conclusions I draw from my latest qualitative poll conducted between July 3 and July 9, which drew 1,053 responses.

Because it is qualitative research, quantitative figures are indicative, not precise, but they are still a good gauge of what is happening.

While we know from Newspoll and others that Labor’s vote has dropped this year, maybe to as low as 29 per cent, or lower, and One Nation’s has maintained around 29 per cent, with the Liberals on 17 per cent or thereabouts, there has been movement in perceptions of Hanson and Taylor, albeit from low bases.

Six months ago, amongst our sample Hanson had a net -22 per cent approval, which has now improved to net -15 per cent. In January, in net terms, Sussan Ley was on -58 per cent; today Angus Taylor is on -42 per cent. Not good, but heading in the right direction.

Meanwhile Anthony Albanese’s net approval is -19 per cent, little changed from January and only four points better than Hanson’s.

But the next election is not going to be a beauty contest based on the leaders.

On the question of whether each of the parties deserves to be in government, Labor is well ahead on -9 per cent net, One Nation next on -33 per cent, with the Coalition in last place on -66 per cent.

That is the first paradox. One Nation can rival or surpass both major parties on first preferences without voters thinking it is ready to govern. And the Coalition, despite being the alternative government for most of the past century, now scores even worse on that test.

This doesn’t really reflect voting intentions, with our sample splitting 55 per cent to 45 per cent Labor against the Coalition and 56 per cent to 44 per cent against One Nation. That means in a straight two-party contest One Nation needs one percentage point more to win than the Coalition, but they are both behind in what would be landslide-win-to-Labor territory.

Except that Australia does not conduct national elections as one straight two-party contest. It conducts 150 individual contests under compulsory preferential voting, and that makes the relative positions of One Nation and the Coalition much more complicated than their national primary votes suggest.

If voters have to choose between the Coalition and One Nation, 68 per cent choose the Coalition versus 32 per cent for One Nation.