Labor set to win next election

Two key events over recent weeks have not received the media attention they deserve.

While Sussan Ley's resignation from Parliament secured a lot of notice, her stated reason, that she wanted to give her successor "clear air", was not widely called out. Ley even said that "there were no hard feelings against Taylor". Angus Taylor, the new Liberal leader, said little to dispute this narrative, preferring to instead pretend that the pair were still cordial, and that the party was now united under his leadership.

Even less attention was given to the statement from Raissa Butkowski (the Liberal Party's endorsed candidate to succeed Ley in the seat of Farrer) that "she had reached out to Sussan" but that Ley never responded. Butkowski played the issue down. "I also think that she deserves a well-earned break," she said.

The Liberals are playing the public as fools, but voters are not buying it. The reality is that (in defeat) Ley has, figuratively speaking, thrown her party and its candidate under a bus. The public realise this, and the taxpayer is also being hit with an estimated $3.3 million in needless by-election costs.

The right thing for Ley to have done by her party and by the taxpayer would have been to see out her term! Everyone knows that the last thing the Liberal Party needed after its divisive and drawn-out leadership contest was a by-election. Ley's actions have selfish vindictiveness written all over them.

No one fully knows who Ley would like to see win the coming by-election. Ley's actions, however, can only help non-Liberal candidates, particularly independent Michelle Millthorpe. Millthorpe is often described as a "Teal" or "linked to Climate 200", though she plays this down. The latest betting indicates that the by-election is a two horse race between (narrow favourite) Millthorpe and One Nation. Labor is not running a candidate, and other parties are all outsiders. The market thinks that the Liberals at 9:1are near certain to lose the seat.

More broadly, the split between the conservative and the wet/moderate wing of the Liberal Party remains raw and very bitter. The conservatives acted as spoilers when Ley was leader, and all the indications are that the "moderates" (or at least some of them) will do the same to Taylor.

While the conservatives have finally had a win federally with Taylor, the same is not true in the states. A huge issue also is that, despite a lot of "moderates" losing their seats at the last federal election, up to half of remaining sitting Liberal federal parliamentarians are "moderates". A core of these is believed to prefer seeing the Liberals lose rather than endure the conservative wing gaining any further control. The identity of these Liberal parliamentarians is widely known, and lists of leading "moderates" are even published on Wikipediaand otherinternet sites.

The Liberal "moderates" are a faction that tends to be "progressive" on economic, social, and environmental issues. They have traditionally represented well-heeled (especially city) seats or are in the Senate, and compete against the Liberal Party's historically dominant faction, its Conservative wing. The ascendancy of "moderates" (federally) began in 2015 when Malcolm Turnbull deposedTony Abbott as PM.

The "moderates" are currently the dominant Liberal faction in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania. Kellie Sloane (the New South Wales Opposition Leader), Jeremy Rockliff (the current Tasmanian Premier), Jess Wilson (the Victorian Opposition Leader), and Ashton Hurn (the South Australia Opposition Leader) are all "moderates". Prominent "moderates" in New South Wales included former premiers Gladys Berejiklian, Barry O'Farrell and Mike Baird. Matt Kean (former Deputy Leader) and Susan Ley have also been well-known "moderates".

Both wings of the Liberal Party have been accused of branch stacking and other irregularities, though the "moderates" have been more successful. This has led to calls from conservatives for federal intervention, especially in NSW and Victoria.

The Victorian Liberal Party recently dumped conservative MP, Moira Deeming, from its upper house ticket for Victoria's November election after a tense preselection battle. This outcome was described by one prominent Liberal as a "gift to the Labor Party" and led to outrage from the conservative wing. Subsequently, after some adverse publicity, the winning candidate withdrew his candidacy. Moira Deeming secured unanimous Liberal Party endorsement after her rivals withdrew from a second preselection contest.