Labor's election campaign breaks the golden rule

The alternatives in the election are coming down to a choice between a big spending Labor administration that will effect a major further push in renewables, and a Coalition with more emphasis on smaller government, income tax cuts (especially for middle income earners and companies), and more modest increases in renewable energy.  Morrison's promised tax cuts have been taken with a grain of salt by the electorate because few have been expecting the Coalition to regain power and be in a position to deliver them.

Labor remains firm favourite to be the next government at $1.25 (at the time of writing) compared to the Coalition at $3.85.  We are therefore looking at the prospect of an era similar to but not quite as radical as the Whitlam one, with higher spending, higher taxes and increased debt on prospect.  Labor wants to promote wage increases but has a number of policies, which are countervailing (eg. continuing record immigration, seeking further increases in the Superannuation Guarantee.)

While Labor is intent on taking us further down the road to socialism, this might still be a good election for the Coalition to lose.  This is because, in addition to opposition being a good place to sort out internal problems, there are clouds on the economic horizon.  Australia and the world are due another recession, and US/China relations are problematic.  In addition our electricity system is set to become much more expensive and unreliable, assuming Labor goes ahead with its energy plans.

All this reminds me of what Paul Keating said in May 1986.  "If this Government cannot get the adjustment, get manufacturing going again, and keep moderate wage outcomes and a sensible economic policy, then Australia is basically done for. We will end up being a third rate economy... a banana republic".