Australia now and 2030

Economic policy difficulties will lead Australian political leaders to exploit non-economic issues or offer false claims or ideas that supposedly can save the world. Currently the Coalition attacks Labor over boat refugees, the carbon tax and perceived economic incompetence. Labor promotes economic prowess against less fortunate Western nations, while implementing a carbon tax and exporting more and more dirty coal.

In government economic policy terms, besides general competence in regard to upholding the international economic orthodoxy of the day, all we may have left is the age-old struggle between Labor, which normally spends more than the Coalition in both periods of outlay expansion or contraction; and the Coalition which nearly always tempers the level of spending by Labor and gives greater attention to business interests and national defence. In truth, whether the Australian economy prospers or stagnates depends very much on the fortunes of the international economy, as it always has.

For all the calls by Cox and Bandt for a more inclusive and generous society by 2030, much may depend on just which issue is the flavour of the month as government and society considers longstanding and new issues. While Australian government outlays have remained around a third of our GDP since the early 1980s, and public health expenditure increased from 3.8 per cent of GDP in 1980 to reach 5.9 per cent by 2008, less money is now spent on unemployment benefits which increased in real terms by just 50¢ a day during the past 15 years with the current $245 weekly rate $103 behind aged and disability pensions. Australia by 2009 also had around one quarter of its doctors having obtained their first medical qualification overseas, according to a 2012 Health Workforce Australia publication.

But while Megalogenis is right to ask how the political class will galvanise public support to aid the longer term national interest, the answers are difficult.

Megalogenis talks of the need to develop education to help make Australia the smartest country on planet and help attract many of the mobile and educated global workforce with many of them using Australia as a temporary stay on way to US. At the same time, Megalogenis suggests we may be competing for the wrong global citizen as we need migrants that will contribute through their children, much as they did in past decades.

But how do we promote Australian industry to employ more Australians and immigrants given the ongoing demise of more sectors that are opened up to foreign competition?

We were once told that Australia would provide much more food to the world, yet a local beef and lamb farmer tells me he has 15 grandchildren, but only one wants to stay on the farm? And this farmer has no debt.

Do we simply rely on mining and allow other industries to disintegrate further due to a high dollar as global investors look for safe havens to invest at a time when Australia is a major mining exporter? Heaven help us should the Asian bubble burst or further Western decline leads to much greater protectionist sentiment which will indeed slow global economic growth given Western societal demands for greater social and environmental consideration.

Do we really believe that a free trade agreement with authoritarian China will be fair? A recent report by China's Ministry of Commerce points out that the first three quarters of 2012 saw 55 trade cases against China worth around $US24.3 billion, thus representing 40 per cent of all actions. This included submissions from the EU and US, India, Brazil, Argentina, and Turkey.

It is nonsense to suggest that the rise of authoritarian China at the expense of Western societies will be good for the world given that the latter remains largely unwilling to encourage democratic rights and civil society, promote true open trade, or even expose the true extent of public corruption.

And while Megalogenis also notes how Australians of non-English speaking backgrounds will be the majority by 2030, and Bandt pleads for Australia to still take refugees, Australia's multicultural immigration program must always take account of potential problems that may disadvantage or alienate Australians.

Despite a rocky ahead, Australia can remain a relatively visionary country, although probably not in accordance to the ideals of Cox and Bandt. As other panellists illustrate, there is much to be optimistic about Australia. Annabel Crabb, political editor of ABC online, defended the Australian character beyond a stereotype type of a Bondi lifeguard or stockman by noting how we accepted a decent universal health care system whereas the US still struggles for one. Crabb also noted how Australia now takes mental health much more seriously.

While pressure will remain on Australian wages, we still maintain a greater desire to promote a decent minimum wage and reasonable working conditions. In contrast, one summary of US Census Bureau data suggests that the proportion of US families struggling with poverty continued to grow in 2011 due to more people returning to work given lower-paying service jobs with nearly one-third of working families struggling compared to 31 per cent in 2010 and 28 per cent in 2007.

To conclude, the recent ABC Big Ideas program Imagining Australia in 2030 was useful, but it remains to be seen just how Australia fares by 2030 now the mirage of the 1960s and 1970s is over and our recent easy reliance on credit is less of an option. Australia will be different. Hopefully it will remain a shining light in a world of competitive nations, but recent policy trends suggest a mixed bag of both positive and negative trends as policy limitations continue to unravel.