Terrible consequences of ladder of escalation

On Anzac day we salute those who have served our nation in times of war and conflict, we honour the memory of those who died and we aspire to follow their example by leading lives worthy of their sacrifice.

It is a day for noble sentiments about noble deeds.

As I listened to the speeches given by returned servicemen and women during a number of ANZAC commemorative services, I was struck by the cold hard facts of the reality of war.

Statistic after statistic reminds us in graphic terms of the horror of war and the suffering and sacrifice of combatants and civilians caught up in conflict.

It is estimated that more than 15 million people were killed in World War I, with over 20 million wounded.

At that time Australia had a total population of just under five million and yet around 417,000 men enlisted, with over 61,500 killed and more than 156,000 wounded or captured.

During the Second World War it is estimated that more than 60 million people died - over 20 million military personnel and over 40 million civilians.

The Soviet Union alone is estimated to have suffered more than 27 million deaths.

Millions of civilians were killed due to the unspeakable evil of the Nazi holocaust that targeted not only Jewish people but also Polish and Romani, those living with a handicap, and others deemed to be undeserving of life.

In the Asia Pacific theatres of war huge losses were inflicted on nations occupied by the Imperial Japanese forces.

Almost one million men and women from Australia served in the Second World War with almost 40,000 killed and more than 30,000 taken prisoner.

These chilling facts defy comprehension, beyond our understanding of what could motivate those responsible for the outbreak of these terrible conflicts.

The World Wars and particularly the destruction unleashed between 1939 and 1945 shocked the world into action which resulted in the formation of the United Nations and greater economic and cultural integration in Europe.

The Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States rested on the MAD principle of mutually assured destruction, where neither side would be able to defeat the other due to large arsenals of nuclear weapons.

When the Iron Curtain came down between 1989 and 1991, there was great hope that long-lasting global peace could be a reality.

The former Soviet Union dissolved into its former independent nations and Russia embraced a more democratic system of government and a market economy.

The other great communist state of China has also become integrated into the world economy.

China has too much to lose from any outbreak of hostilities with its neighbours or with the United States and its allies.

While other wars and hostilities have occurred at different times and in different places around the world, there has been nothing approaching the scale of the two terrible wars of the last century.

After the devastation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, the world should need no reminder of the horrible consequences of nuclear weapons.

However, it is the isolation - self-imposed and through international sanctions - of North Korea that increases global concerns about the fragility of peace.

Hostilities in the Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice. Technically North and South Korea remain at war.

During a visit to South Korea, it was obvious from my discussion with government officials that North Korea's military and nuclear ambitions are never far from their minds.

While we hope that North Korea is unlikely to ever have the capacity to threaten global conflict on the scale that erupted during the two great World Wars, it does have the capacity to threaten global stability through its nuclear weapons development.

It has been reported that North Korea is currently preparing to conduct a nuclear bomb test, in the wake of its failed ballistic missile test.

This will be in direct and aggressive defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions explicitly banning such tests.

Unlike its recent missile launch, which North Korea claimed was to launch a satellite, there can be no possible excuse for the detonation of a nuclear weapon.

In the past North Korea has been accused of proliferating nuclear technology and selling arms to Iran.

Any further escalation in its nuclear program will increase the already heightened concerns about North Korea's links to the Iranian nuclear program.

There were many provocative and lurid statements from former leader Kim Jong-il

Any faint hope of a change under son Kim Jong-un has faded rapidly.

Kim Jong-un delivered a speech recently in which he urged the military "Let's move on toward our final victory".

The South has made it clear that it will retaliate against any acts of aggression, in the wake of claims that North Korea sank a South Korean warship and shelled an island of South Korea.

The North Korean regime stands before a ladder of escalation.

If it chooses to place a foot upon even the first rung, the tinderbox that is the Korean peninsula could well explode with unpredictable consequences.

The international community must do everything in its power to prevent it.

We must learn from the lessons of history.