Copenhagen: what we must demand

The people of this planet, rather than the governments claiming to represent them, have a right to demand that the 25 largest emitters of greenhouse gases reach an agreement on:

• meaningful and timely reduction of their emissions;
• mandatory inspection and monitoring of their action; and
• enforcement measures ensuring reduction targets are met.

The five countries with the largest greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for more than half of total global emissions, while the 25 largest emitters are responsible for 81 per cent. The remaining 185 countries, being responsible for only 19 per cent of those emissions, should not be required to set binding targets but should undertake to do what they can to reduce their emissions.

Emissions reduction

Governments of the 25 largest emitting countries will be on trial at Copenhagen, probably by most of their own people and certainly by the rest of the world. Why? Because they are responsible for the deteriorating state of the global environment and ability of the human species not just to live in it, but to survive. They have prime responsibility for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions to levels which ensure that global temperatures do not rise by more than 2C above the pre-industrial level.

Climate scientists broadly agree that to achieve this primary target, concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere must not be permitted to exceed 450ppm. Desirably CO2 should be kept below 400ppm. However, CO2 has been steadily increasing over the past 50 years and doing so with increasing speed, as have anthropomorphic emissions.  Its concentration is now at about 390ppm. At levels of 450ppm or more, there is a very real risk of temperatures rising by more than 2C and continuing to rise.

If that happens, land-based ice will melt much faster and sea levels will rise more rapidly and to higher levels. Extremes of climate would become more pronounced and frequent. The effects would be disastrous and result in massive loss of human habitat and life on a scale never seen before. Ability of the human species to survive could be put at great risk. In short, the world as we now know it could come to an end.

Despite undertakings given at Kyoto, none of the 25 major greenhouse gas emitters, have reduced their emissions. In fact, all have increased them and continue to do so. Most, like Australia, have done so on the pretext that action to reduce emissions would harm economic growth, commercial advantage or cause unemployment. Jobs must be protected! Sound familiar? It should, since it is the top priority of our political leaders.

Most of those leaders suffer from political myopia, a condition limiting their vision to the short term, preventing adoption of policies and practices which would realistically avoid or mitigate the effects of climate change. Those changes have already begun to affect us, so far only in a relatively small way. This is evidenced by:

Persistent drought

The Murray-Darling river basin continues to be drought stricken. River flows have stopped, scarcity of water prevents or limits crop irrigation and food production is falling. In some areas, towns dependent on river water for human consumption are beginning to face the very real prospect of having water strictly rationed or trucked-in. Major cities such as Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane-Gold Coast are forced to increasingly rely on desalination to meet human needs for potable water.

If temperatures rise more than 2C this dependence will increase, irrigated agriculture and its productivity will continue to contract, food prices will rise and exports will fall. The possibility of major grain crop failure increases the prospect of Australia becoming a net importer of food. Many towns in regional Australia will cease to remain viable communities.

Higher temperatures

Last summer, much of south-east Australia experienced extremely hot weather. For six days, temperatures remained above 40C. This caused massive bush fires which were only controlled after the death of some 178 people. Property losses resulted and a further 200 people died from heat-stroke due to prolonged high temperatures.

Unabated climate change will produce longer and more frequent period of extreme heat, increasing the number and severity of bush fires, the death toll and property losses. It will increase loss of water from reservoirs and moisture from the earth through evaporation, reducing cultivation, crop yields and the area of human habitat. Top-soil, deprived of cover will be blown away or eroded and fertility will be lost.

Rising sea levels

Combined with king-tides or storm-surge activity are already causing coastal erosion and damage to low lying sea-front property including dwellings, surf clubs and other structures. Erosion results in loss of sand from beaches and undermining of the beach-head. The first signs of estuarine flooding causing local salt water contamination have occurred. The Australian government is now considering the need to map and identify coastal areas subject to flooding and limit or stop building in such areas.

A 1-2m rise in sea level is going to happen. Combined with storm surges or typhoons has the potential to flood large parts of major cities such as Shanghai or New York causing catastrophic losses and massive economic dislocation. It would inundate prime agricultural land around the deltas of rivers such as the Irrawaddy, Ganges Nile and Mekong, causing disastrous loss of food production with starvation ensuing. International and local wars over water and food would result, accompanied by massive population movement.

Health threats

Increased temperatures have already resulted in spread of vectors in the Townsville/Cairns area Queensland, resulting in a significant increase in the incidence of dengue fever, malaria and the occurrence of cases of encephalitis.

Warming in excess of 2C would result in the spread of vectors south to major population areas such as Brisbane and the Gold Coast and possibly Sydney, resulting in spread of these and other diseases. No less seriously it would result in rising concentration of ozone in the lower atmosphere, adversely affecting those with respiratory complaints and causing premature death.

Ocean Pollution

Our seas and oceans are being polluted by CO2 causing increased acidification and by use as a dump for man-made waste products including highly toxic materials. Both, combined with warming sea temperatures are destroying coral reefs, other marine habitat and endangering pteropods and plankton on which larger marine life depends. These developments and destructive, rapacious overfishing threaten viability of fish stocks on which humans largely depend for protein.

Continuation of these practices and increased global warming will result in collapse of fisheries and their loss as a major food source, worsening shortages resulting in starvation, massive population movements in search of food and outbreak of diseases.

Glacier melting

Global loss of natural water storage, mountain glaciers, is already occurring, placing at risk continued flow of rivers on which more than a billion people depend for drinking water, food production and energy generation.

Rising temperatures will speed-up glacier melting, initially causing river flooding, ultimately the loss of flows sufficient to sustain the major populations now dependent on them as a source of water. This will further reduce human habitat and increase competition for reduced availability of essentials for life.

Inspection and monitoring

To avoid development of these catastrophes the 25 largest greenhouse gas emitters must reduce burning fossil fuels by 2050 such that emissions are reduced to 50 per cent of 1990 levels. They must agree on annual reduction targets which ensure that the 2050 target is achieved. Failure to agree should result in the UN General Assembly adopting and approving enforcement of annual targets.

The UN must create a body to monitor, inspect and report on action taken by major emitters to achieve these targets. Countries refusing to submit to inspection should be subjected to penalties for non-compliance.

Enforcement

Copenhagen must not be another Kyoto, devoid of compulsion or enforcement measures, enabling countries to ignore their obligations to reduce their emissions. Major emitters not complying with agreed or enforced emission targets must be penalised.

The most effective penalty is to impose a carbon tax on the national production of each defaulter and apply it to their exports. The effect would be to increase the cost of those exports, stimulating importers to purchase from cheaper lower emitting sources. The cheapest products would come from those countries making the most effort to reduce emissions and therefore attracting the lowest carbon tax.

Countries not making such an effort would find their export trade falling sharply and rapidly, compelling them to reduce export production and, in so doing, reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Imposition of such a tax would place emphasis on the need to reduce emissions in order to obtain economic advantage, rather than the present arrangement where ability to produce energy from burning fossil fuels in the most efficient manner possible yields economic advantage - and continued global warming.

Conclusion

The world can not be held to ransom by the greed or self interest of the largest economies. If they can not agree on measures to avoid the catastrophes of global warming, they must be compelled to do so. If Copenhagen fails to reach agreements necessary to ensure human survival, the UN General Assembly must impose and enforce targets which do so.