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Iran: theocracy versus democracy

By Naser Ghobadzadeh - posted Friday, 7 August 2009


Although the theocratic component has the capability to stifle any democratic elements in the short and even mid-term future, it is not clear that the situation can go on like this ad infinitum.

Two reasons may provide an explanation for this claim. Given that 68.3 per cent of Iran’s population is under 34 years of age (Statistical Center of Iran 2007) the country's youth, who have been the main force of both the 1997 and 2009 elections, are not going to stand aside. Post-election events and a high turnout in the streets happened despite almost all communication channels being closed down by the government a day before the election. Using the minimum possible Internet access, people, specifically youths, organised their moves through Facebook, Twitter and the Iranian website, Balatarin. These youths are armed with both the knowledge and the technologies of modern life.

In addition, the women’s role should not be overlooked. Since 1998, the number of female university students has outnumbered the number of male students. In 2007, 65 per cent of university students were female (Radiafarda 2008). It is the women who will suffer most from a theocratic government and its anti-women edicts. Thus, it is not surprising that women played a key role in the post-election events. The infamous murder of a young girl named Neda Aghasultan came to be the symbol of resistance.

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Although the government may slow the people’s agitation for a time, the people will certainly not cease their protest against living under the intolerable rules of a theocratic government.

The other challenge to Iran’s long-term, hitherto triumphant, theocratic government is posed by internal conflict at the elite level. The Shiite clergy, who rule the country, are loosely organised. There is no centralised hierarchal system like in Catholicism, wherein a Pope leads a levelled clergy. The tradition of debate and questioning is an essential part of Houze (religious schools). Thus, based on the aforementioned religious structure and tradition, disagreement and a specific sort of pluralism are embedded in the relationships of Shiite Ayatollahs (Gheissari & Vali 2004). These features are reflected in the Islamic Republic of Iran as a political regime as well. Even the Supreme Leader’s authority, as the one who has higher authority over the country’s other institutions, is more political than religious.

There are many high-ranking clerics, both within and outside the political institutions, who while they may not subscribe to secular democracy, evince a democratic interpretation of an Islamic Republic. They are against a solely theocratic regime. Therefore, the theocracy-democracy battle is not only a battle between seculars and religious figures. The theocratic component has to fight an internal battle which does not auger well. High ranking religious figures such as Grand Aystullah Montazeri and Sanei, as well as political figures including head of the Assembly of Elite Hashemi Rafsanjani belong to the opposing camp.

Rafsanjani’s latest speech at the (July 17) Friday prayers gathering, in which he avoided endorsing the election as a “clean” one, specifically opened a new battle ground for the theocratic body. He insisted on the importance of the people’s endorsement of the legitimacy of the regime, which clearly shows where he stands in the theocracy-democracy battle. Rafsanjani is currently Head of the Assembly of Experts, a group of 86 Shi'ite Muslim clerics commissioned to oversee the Supreme Leader. Thus, it is not surprising that there have been severe reactions to Rafsanjani’s speech.

These reactions included that they were adamant about the utmost importance of Tanfiz - an official ceremony in which the Supreme Leader endorses the winning candidate’s presidency - as the main source of government legitimacy. Ayatollah Yazdi (2009), a key member of the Guardian Council, maintained that the people’s vote without the Supreme Leader’s endorsement is worthless. Moreover, in July 26, 2005 MPs signed an open letter to the Supreme Leader pronouncing that all institutions and positions in Islamic Republic would be legitimised only through the Supreme Leader’s endorsement.

It is hard to foresee any significant change, either through current demonstrations or efforts by opponent elites such as Rafsanjani, in the short-term perspective. However, the fact that the theocratic component has to fight both a vitally alive society and strong religious and political leaders leaves one with many doubts about the success of any plan to develop a solely theocratic government in Iran in the long-term.

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About the Author

Naser Ghobadzadeh worked as editor-in-chief of foreign policy service of Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA). He has also published a book about value changes in Iran and its impact on political climate. He is now a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and I.R., University of Sydney.

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