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Is history repeating itself?

By Christian Downie - posted Friday, 12 June 2009


On the other hand, developing countries continue to resist any conditionality for fear that they will be employed to interfere in their economic development. They too have a point. The IMF and the World Bank have not had the best record in many parts of the world.

If President Obama wants to stop history repeating itself, he is going to have to find a way to move the international climate negotiations out of this unproductive cycle.

Despite his bright start this will not be easy. On the international front there is that minor problem of the global financial crisis to deal with. Many western governments are likely to have less inclination than they did a year ago to provide financial transfers to developing countries to deal with climate change, warranted though they are.

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Further, as President Clinton found, the toughest hurdles to climate action are likely to be on the home front. While Obama does not face the hostile Congress that Clinton did in 1994, Senators from the Midwest of the United States have already made their intentions clear to resist legislation that in any way is against the interests of their coal-dependent states.

Then again, Obama knew this would not be easy. Making history has always been more difficult than repeating it. If anyone should know, he should.

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About the Author

Between 2006 and 2008 Christian worked as a research fellow at the Australia Institute in Canberra, where he published widely on the economics and politics of climate change. He has appeared on television and radio discussing his research, and his opinion pieces have appeared in the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and the Canberra Times. Christian is currently a PhD scholar at the Australian National University where his research is focusing on the approach of key state actors to compliance during the international climate negotiations.

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