Only the naïve make confident predictions about Indonesian politics

Westerners dealing with Indonesia have been barracking for SBY, not because he’s been an outstanding leader but because the alternatives look so scary.

During the corrupt rule of General Soeharto that ended in 1998 with the Asian economic crisis, the men with the guns ran the country and just about everything else. The army had seats in Parliament, controlled many businesses, had a major internal security role, oversaw the police and were considered untouchable.

Although the military’s influence is no longer so blatant it’s still a force behind the scenes. Boosters for SBY highlight his academic qualifications (he has a doctorate in agriculture), his urbanity and English skills learned while studying in the US, and his middle ground, ultra-cautious politics. He appears to genuinely believe in democracy and has gravitas on the international stage.

Supporters play down his past as a four-star general before entering politics and his military family. His father, father-in-law and a son were, or are, soldiers.

The April 9 election results closely followed informal exit polls. The Democratic Party ran ahead of all in the crowded pack seeking power, winning 21.04 per cent of the vote. Second was Megawati’s PDIP with 14.52 per cent, a whisker ahead of Golkar mustering 14.23 per cent.

With these results a coalition will have to run the 560-seat Parliament, known as the DPR. How that’s going to be engineered is the critical question, though this time round SBY can bargain from a position of strength.

Optimists say all this shows Indonesians have embraced democracy and are making it work. Those who don’t use rose-coloured glasses note only 61 per cent of the nation’s 171 million eligible electors bothered to vote and millions were disenfranchised through registration stuff-ups.

Fourth in the April election with 8.16 per cent was the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which kept its Islamic credentials in the background while campaigning hard against corruption. Liberals suspect the party has other agendas and were concerned SBY might pick his running mate from a party that’s against pluralism and women’s rights, and for Sharia law.

Instead SBY cannily selected economist and Bank Indonesia governor Boediono, who studied at the University of Western Australia and Monash, and later in the US. He was Minister of Finance during Megawati’s 2001-2004 presidency.

When introducing Boediono to the miffed PKS the president stressed his partner’s dedication to Islam ahead of his impressive financial skills.

Some PKS members reacted by shifting support to Kalla because SBY’s wife Kristiani, and Boediono’s wife Herawati don’t wear headscarves. The sexist sub-text was clear: the men are inadequate Muslims unfit to run the country because they can’t control their wives.

Critics of SBY’s administration during the past five years often overlook the huge problems he faced and give insufficient weight to his skills in keeping the political system intact, the economy on course and the nation relatively safe.