Can we reverse global climate change? Part II

But unfortunately most of the Asian leaders remain either unwilling or unsure how to articulate the dilemma they face, leading to a conspiracy of silence, or at best a hope that that solutions can be found later. Even in state run China it will be a challenge to shape polices that reverse the globally interlocked economic development path of the last 30 years. This could well be one of the big internal struggles of the next decade in China as expectations are modified out of sheer necessity.

Of course, for Asians, it will be harsh to be told that as latecomers to the capitalist party they will never be able to attain the standards of living taken for granted by most in the developed countries. The roots of the new consumerism are to be found everywhere in Asia even where people are clinging on to other aspects of their culture. The role of information technology coupled with advertising and its relentless march in making this happen is a reality that governments have to acknowledge.

But it’s a message their leaders have to deliver: that a new economic order is needed - one that stresses providing the basics of life, appreciating that there are limits to resource exploitation and growth which in turn have security implications, allowing more to share in the wealth that nations generate. They have to accept that the world is living in times where growth is redefined by quality and not quantity. To do this, strong and even draconian regulations may be needed.

However not all consumption is destructive and in shaping polices Asian governments should be stimulating their economies and linking it to moving away from export led growth by investing in education, clean water, sanitation and healthcare. In China this is already part of policy especially the recent polices to build a national health care system even if some of the rationale is to get people to save less and spend more.

Can Asian leaders tell their populations that their aspirations rooted in more material consumption can’t be reached? Yes - if they can stand up to economists like Hank Paulson, Roach and others by saying Asians can’t be expected to help the developed world regain its economic footing if they can never realise the lifestyles of those they are aiding.

And yes - if they can they refuse Western entreaties demanding far greater support with environmental technology for energy and other of their needs.

If they don’t, and the arguments for greater consumption win out, the world will only be storing up bigger trouble for the decades ahead - of a magnitude that no stimulus package will be able to overcome.

Notions that the world’s destiny rests with the West must be put aside. The decisions, smart or otherwise, that will decide the future of capitalism and the fate of the earth’s climate will be taking place in Asia. Welcome to the 21st century.

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