China will follow the US: a climate change fable

Where real environmental progress is possible

The wiser - and only effective - option for the US is to shift the emphasis from the here and now to the middle of next decade. That is the time when substantial evidence may appear that the demographic wave is receding. From around 2013, the party will find it increasingly easy to maintain high employment. Eventually, spot labour shortages will even appear, making eliminating overcapacity in heavy industry an appealing goal rather than something to pay lip service to while investing wildly. When that happens, the PRC will be far more willing to sacrifice jobs for the environment.

That is not to say there is nothing important to do in the meantime. At the moment, China's greatest ecological challenge is not air but water - which includes poor sanitation (despite rising affluence) and poses a severe long-term threat to the food supply.

Unlike restricting carbon emissions, cleaner water does not have competitiveness implications that translate to fewer jobs. Given the intense need for water in manufacturing, better water supply - both directly in terms of water treatment and indirectly in terms of feasible industrial output - actually translates to continued competitiveness and more jobs. American assistance on carbon emissions is seen by the party almost entirely through the lens of capturing the job growth prospects of environmental technology. While this perspective will be a factor for water issues, immediate benefits of water-saving and water-cleaning technology for employment in China will make bargaining much more fruitful.

The environment can certainly be part of broader Sino-American co-operation, but such discussions must be focused on the longer term and not on carbon emissions.