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Obama: the view from Iraq

By Bashdar Ismaeel - posted Thursday, 13 November 2008


Barack Obama has swept to victory in the US presidential elections, marking a momentous day in American history.

The appointment of the first black US president represents more than just this iconic and ground-breaking significance. The world, gripped with the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, facing a growing threat of fundamentalism, and reeling from cynicism caused by recent US foreign policy, has been crying out for fresh impetus and new hope.

Perhaps no individual has greater expectations right now than those on Obama's broad shoulders. Obama may well represent the energy that the globe is lacking, but he is no miracle worker. Obama can only work with the tools at his disposal and manoeuvre within constraints that the political stage allows. So Obama would do well to get people's feet back on the ground and quell a level of expectation that, ironically, if unchecked may cripple his tenure before it has even started.

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As the world's attention turned to the heated and historic US presidential contest between Barack Obama and John McCain, proceedings were observed with as much interest in Kurdistan as anywhere in the world. But it was Obama's appointment that certainly stole the world's gaze.

The Republican legacy in Kurdistan and the more clear-cut promises of Republican, John McCain, on the US course in Iraq meant Obama, arguably, was not the first choice of the Kurdish people.

The name "Bush" in Kurdish folklore

If George Bush Senior can be viewed by the Kurds with eternal gratitude for the establishment of the no-fly zone and onset of Kurdish liberalisation from tyranny in 1991, it is perhaps the actions of his son George. W. Bush that is forever etched in Kurdish folklore.

Conceivably, in later generations, Kurds may view the decision by Bush Junior to oust Saddam Hussein from power as being as significant as the tale from Newroz folklore where Kawa the blacksmith defeated Zehak the evil ruler to free the nation held in captivity thousands of years ago. The significance of the new dawn for Kurdish existence cannot be overestimated.

The Kurds have been betrayed far too many times, particularly by successive US governments, to take future American support for granted, but the change of fortune during the last 17 years, and particularly in the last five since the liberalisation of Iraq, has been truly remarkable for an ancient, battle weary, and emotionally scarred people.

Not all US government policies have boded well for the people of Kurdistan; and US presidents have so far stopped short of a full-fledged backing and support for the Kurdish nation: however, the symbolic nature of the support afforded to the Kurds has given them their first opportunity to steer their future down a new, prosperous and unmolested path. It will never be forgotten by the ever-grateful Kurds.

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The Kurds were cold-heartedly sliced into pieces as a by-product of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and they have waited many decades to be rid of mass oppression at the hands of their occupiers.

Kurdish anxiety

Kurdish trepidation and weariness at seeing their hard-fought gains vanish is all too common, especially when their gains have not quite been encapsulated in protection and guarantee. Such mistrust, particularly towards their former Arab rulers in Iraq, cannot simply vanish in a short period of time.

Pain and mourning are not concepts that just disappear, least of all from mentally scarred citizens who have lost many a loved one and witnessed the razing of their villages. So when the end of an era arrived in America - a country now on the path of ground-breaking political change - Kurdish anticipation of the electoral results was understandable.

As thousands of Kurds watched the election it was the candidate that represented the next best thing to George W. Bush, presidential candidate John McCain, who was the default man of choice in Iraqi Kurdistan.

When Obama raised Kurdish tensions, by declaring his open intent to withdraw troops from Iraq as soon as possible, McCain remained defiant, determined to stay the course and not allow hard-won security gains in Iraq to disappear.

Now Kurds will watch developments in the US with close interest to see what policy Obama adopts towards the Kurds. It would seem that US foreign policy in Iraq will be in for a shakeup under Obama, so whether the Kurds will be given commitment and protection, as American attention turns elsewhere, is uncertain.

US bases in Kurdistan

The willingness and encouragement for the establishment of permanent US bases in Kurdistan Region may have stoked national sentiments further south in recent times; however, the concept is nothing new. Kurds have campaigned and supported the idea of some form of residual US presence in Kurdistan, regardless of any greater US-Iraqi security pact.

It's hardly a secret that the majority of Kurds in Iraq are pro-Western. However, blatant endorsement of Kurdish autonomy by the new Obama administration may be nothing short of wishful thinking. Just as the Kurds rely heavily on the US now and in the future, the US relies heavily on broader Iraqi endorsement and Arab support.

Status of Forces Agreement (Sofa) stalled

With the chances of passing the security pact during the remaining time of Bush’s stewardship now slim, the chances of an agreement before year end, when US forces will find themselves in a legal vacuum, is now also diminishing. What was deemed to be a final document awaiting a vote by Iraq's Parliament, has now been returned, somewhat disappointedly in the eyes of the Bush administration, along with a fresh set of proposals and a request for further rework.

US officials had previously said the chance of further revisions was unlikely. Despite recent encouragement from Bush that a deal would be struck before year end, the US analysis of the Iraqi recommendations, coupled with scepticism from high-ranking US officials, may well mean that the security pact will become one of the first testing challenges facing Obama as the new US president.

Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani, recently in Washington for talks, emphasised his support for the idea of stationing US troops in Kurdistan if the security pact was not signed by the end of the year.

His remarks drew a strong rebuke, somewhat unsurprisingly, from anti-US hardliners, namely from Moqtada al-Sadr's bloc, but also ironically from leading Kurdish figures and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Talabani's statement that all Iraqi constitutional laws apply to the Kurdistan Region was inevitable. Talabani may be an influential Kurdish leader, but as the symbolic figurehead of Iraq, he was hardly going to embrace the idea in public with open arms.

The attitude of a majority of Iraqi politicians who wish to be seen standing up for national pride and not ceding to US influence, has meant the agreement, already well diluted, may require further downgrading - much to the annoyance of the US.

However, as much as Baghdad can ill-afford to lose the support of the US, conversely Washington, without common agreement to remain in Iraq, will suffer a huge humiliation come January 1, 2009, with the absence of any symbolic legal cover.

Greater Iraqi view

Obama's appointment bodes well with large sections of the Iraqi population who favour a quick departure of American forces, and who remain unmoved from their perceptions of Bush as a Western tyrant. Obama's skin-colour and his exotic origins are significant for most Iraqis (and the great Middle Eastern landscape for that matter). However, most Arab sceptics generally believe that the choice of president will change little when it comes to US policies in the Middle East.

This view may hold some weight: after all, the new US president will still be constricted to some extent by the Bush legacy. No US president, however gallant, can escape from this fact.

Furthermore, US foreign policy has always been long term. Decades of foreign ideals and strategic manoeuvring for a world order in line with the vision of the US, cannot be altered greatly or at the pace many demand. Even the effervescent and bold Obama may struggle to make wholesale changes. It will take time. So in reality, Obama can ill-afford to change radically Bush's policy in Iraq. If he does and the Iraqi project derails, the nails in his presidential coffin may have been hammered home before his term even begins. The security pact, even if modified further, will clearly see US presence in Iraq for at least four year.

Regardless of the differing camps’ view on Bush's eight-year tenure at the helm and the capacity of Obama to enact real change, there is a broad and energised consensus in the US and on the international stage, that a fresh outlook was required and a new page can now be turned. A jubilant Obama hopes to provide just that.

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About the Author

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel is a London-based freelance writer and analyst, whose primary focus and expertise is on the Kurds, Iraq and Middle Eastern current affairs. The main focus of his writing is to promote peace, justice and increase awareness of the diversity, suffering and at times explosive mix in Iraq and the Middle East.

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