Don't mention the economic crisis - there's an election on

And the possible impact of these things? Business activity in the ACT will decline. Unemployment will increase, perhaps markedly. The number of housing loans will drop. Housing prices will fall. Revenue (for example, payroll tax, betterment tax and land tax,) will decline. GST revenue will slow down. Rudd will cut federal government grants to the states and territories as Commonwealth revenue falls.

This could mean less spending from the Territory Government, and perhaps an attack on Territory public services and public servants including sacking teachers and nurses.

What about the $500 million in promises both major parties have made? Kiss them goodbye if our local economy (as is possible) tanks.

If the campaign is becoming a theatre of the surreal, the seeming rise of the Greens presents new questions.

A 10 per cent swing against the majority Labor Government in the polls has been almost entirely to the Greens. The Liberals have not benefited at all.

The polls to date suggest one possible outcome: Labor winning seven seats, the Liberals six and the Greens four. In the last election in 2004 Labor won nine seats - a majority; the Liberals seven (with one since leaving and setting up his own party) and the Greens one.

The predicted four seats for the Greens may be overstating the case somewhat but it is clear that Labor will not retain a majority and the Liberals will not win one.

Yet the Greens refuse to state who they would support as Chief Minister if they, as is likely, hold the balance of power. They are doing this because they hope to pick up some Liberal voters as well as Labor voters. In other words their strategy appears to be little more than that adopted by the Democrats - attract the left of the Liberals and disaffected ALP voters.

The Democrats succeeded for 30 years in balancing these unstable elements, but eventually folded because of that very balancing act. If the Greens adopt the same approach, the results could be the same as the Democrats, only quicker.

Of course the environment remains a long term winner for the Greens so they will be around for a while yet. The question is whether they can break out of the ghetto of environment-only politics and attract a wider following.

The Greens need to decide if they are a party to the left of the ALP or not. One indication of that would be to come out in support of the Labor nominee for Chief Minister now.

This election could be the end for Jon Stanhope, the current Labor Chief Minister. If the ALP does lose its majority, what are the odds on Katy Gallagher, the present Deputy Chief Minister, being the ALP’s candidate (assuming she retains her seat)? Quite short, I suspect.