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Diverting the Brahmaputra - start of the Water Wars?

By Arthur Thomas - posted Friday, 2 May 2008


Road works have been progressing at an unusual rate for some time and continue outside the normal safe construction period for this region resulting in the death of construction workers from landslides. Satellite images and reports portray a road unusual for such a low ethnic population in remote mountainous regions. Rather than the tortuous dirt switchbacks that are the norm, this new road will be bituminised, unusually wide and incorporates sweeping curves and tunnels. Such design features suggest a road for higher speeds and use by vehicles carrying heavy as well as long loads.

Roughly 20km north of Medog is the site for the proposed storage dam and new construction works in Medog suggest preparations for a major project or an unusual large military support base.

International rivers

China has so far dammed numerous trans-national rivers including Mekong, Sutlej, Indus, Ili and Ertix with plans for major dam cascades on the Salween and Irrawaddy as well as on major tributaries of the Mekong and Yangtze. These form part of the South to North water Diversion Project that is also part of the much more ambitious and contentious China's Water Strategy and Himalayan Strategy.

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To avoid disputes over water rights and protect the economies and rights to water by dependent downstream populations, the United Nations promulgated the "UN Convention on Non-Navigation Uses of International Watercourses".

Despite considerable international pressure, China refuses to be a signatory, preferring instead to negotiate individual agreements with some, but not all neighbours.

Where to from here

Beijing proclaims that “China can feed itself in the next century”, yet the "problem" continually appears on NPC agendas as food imports, cooking oil and world grain prices escalate. By imposing price caps Beijing has only increased inflation.

Rapidly diminishing arable land (now below Beijing's set red line*) and water shortages combine with expanding desertification and increasing pollution to seriously question Beijing's confidence.

Those in the Zhongnanhai rely on grand projects to retain face and once on the drawing board a grand project must be executed regardless of consequences.

If China wants to be considered a responsible global citizen, it must accept the basic rights of people and especially those reliant on river waters, both within and beyond its borders. For those beyond, signing off on the "United Nations Convention on Non-Navigation Uses of International Watercourses" is only a start.

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But the deliberate cold blooded intent to steal water to support uncontrolled and unsustainable development in north western China, that in turn will deny the basic human right of access to water to millions downstream on a trans-national river, is reckless in the extreme and poses the real possibility of China being held responsible for plunging Asia into the unthinkable - the first major international Water War.

*Note: It represents the absolute minimum area of arable land to be used for food production by 2010. Ministry of Land Resources recorded only 121.73M ha of arable land at the end of 2006, and at a time when China was currently losing 4,000km2 per year of arable land to desertification and non agricultural land use. Current opinion is that this Red Line has already been crossed.

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About the Author

Arthur Thomas is retired. He has extensive experience in the old Soviet, the new Russia, China, Central Asia and South East Asia.

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