Clinton's last stand?

The people of rural America may support Senator Clinton, but they won’t support Barack Obama if he becomes the party’s nominee. Some won’t say it, but they’re concerned about a black president, one who has been tainted in rural America by the lies that he’s a militant Muslim who doesn’t respect the country.

A Gallup poll, published March 26, reveals “only 59 per cent of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against [John] McCain, while 28 per cent say they would vote for the Republican McCain”. In contrast, 72 per cent of Obama’s supporters would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, while 19 per cent said if Obama wasn’t the Democratic nominee, they would vote Republican. However, the defectors will probably be fewer by the August convention and the November election.

The polls occurred before Obama told a closed-door audience in San Francisco that he thought rural and small town Pennsylvania voters are bitter about the economy, about losing houses and jobs, and so they “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them”. Clinton launched a vigorous rebuttal, saying that Obama’s comment was “elitist and divisive”. Although Obama quickly acknowledged that he misspoke, and apologised, the effect of his words were not only to give Clinton a campaign issue but to help solidify what has now become her base.

After Pennsylvania there are nine further primaries, with 566 delegate votes and 126 super delegate votes. Clinton is holding strong leads in Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, and Puerto Rico, which have a combined 152 delegate votes. Obama is currently holding strong leads in North Carolina and South Dakota, which have 130 votes.

Depending upon the poll, Clinton or Obama have slim leads in Indiana (72 votes), Oregon (52 votes), and Guam (4 votes). About 300 of the 800 super delegates (officially “unpledged delegates”) have not yet committed to either candidate. Needed for the nomination are 2,024 votes. A strong Pennsylvania win, with Clinton taking at least 60 per cent of the delegates, combined with a strong win in Indiana on May 6, could re-establish her as the leading candidate.

She might still win the nomination, but it is certain that without the active campaigning of her husband and daughter, and the broad support of rural America, she won’t have a chance.